Futures Jump On Hopes Of War De-escalation, Korea Enters Bear Market On Memory Rout

Futures are higher on a WSJ report that Trump is considering exiting the middle east conflict even if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened; but the market is deciding whether this is a genuine intent to leave or another feint given the previous US attacks during negotiations and that Trump has yet to adjust his Apr 6 deadline. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are 1.1% higher, at session after approaching correction territory yesterday. Nasdaq futures rise 1%, with memory stocks lagging amid reports of DRAM prices plunging as much as 30%. In premarket trading, Mag7 names are higher as part of an ‘Everything Rally’ with bids to both Cyclicals and Defensives. In global markets, South Korea’s Kospi index slid 4.3%, entering a bear market as it extended its drop from a February high to 20%. SK Hynix Inc. slumped more than 7%.  Bond yields are down 3-5bp, with the 10Y yield down to 4.30% after nearly hitting 4.50% two days ago; the Dollar is also lower. Commodities are mixed with crude/gasoline mixed (US avg price rises above $4/gal vs. $2.98 one month ago), after fading an earlier bounce, highlighting the paralysis created by the continually shifting White House statements. Precious metals are rallying as base metals are mixed, and Ags are bid. The macro data focus will be on JOLTS and Consumer Confidence.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all green (Meta +1.5%, Microsoft +1.6%, Alphabet +1.4%, Amazon +1.5%, Apple +0.8%, Nvidia +1.3%, Tesla +1%)

• Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (APLS) soars 138% after Biogen Inc. agreed to acquire the company for $5.6 billion.
• Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) rises 48% after Eli Lilly & Co. agreed to buy the sleep drug maker in a deal worth up to $7.8 billion.
• FactSet Research Systems (FDS) gains 6% after the financial data company boosted its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast for the full year. It also reported adjusted EPS and revenue for the second quarter that beat expectations.
• McCormick (MCK) rises 1.8% after Unilever said talks to sell most of its food business to the maker of spices are advanced. McCormick reported earnings on Tuesday and made no mention of the Unilever deal.
• PepGen (PEPG) plunges 44% after the biotech gave clinical data from a mid-stage trial of its drug candidate for a type of muscle disease. Analysts say the data is mixed and Oppenheimer notes that the selloff might be overdone.
• Phreesia (PHR) tumbles 23% after the healthcare software company lowered its full-year revenue forecast far below the analyst consensus. At least four brokerages downgraded their rating on the stock.
• Scholar Rock (SRRK) rises 11% after the company resubmitted its biologics license application for apitegromab, a muscle-targeted therapy for children and adults with spinal muscular atrophy, to the US Food and Drug Administration.
• T1 Energy (TE) falls 17% after the solar equipment manufacturer reported a wider than expected fourth-quarter loss per share and higher-than-expected expenses.

Stocks are bouncing in the final session of a brutal month as traders welcome a WSJ report that Trump may be willing to end the Iran war even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz (although subsequent comments by Trump suggest that this is merely the latest bluff). Signs of an increased desire for de-escalation from Trump may reduce anxiety over his threats to attack Iranian energy infrastructure. On the other hand, Tehran would be left in control of the key oil shipment chokepoint. Meanwhile, Iran hit a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai in a drone attack. 

Without a ceasefire or tangible progress in negotiations, the market will keep “fading the administration’s ‘everything is going well’ happy talk,” Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli wrote in a note. Carmignac Gestion’s Kevin Thozet observed that “Trump can’t simply turn an on/off switch on the crisis.” Other observers argue that rhetoric alone about a potential end to the conflict cannot create certainty for the market. 

In a social media post, Trump said Iran has “essentially” been decimated and that allies should either buy jet fuel from the US or “take it” from the Strait of Hormuz. Still, an Iranian drone strike on a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai emphasized the continuing danger. “One can’t exclude a swift resolution, but it won’t mean going back exactly to where we were in February,” said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac. “Investors are seeing the glass half-full. During the past 15 years or so, buying the dip has been absolutely key.”

Trump has repeatedly swung between saying a deal with Iran is close and warning he’s prepared to escalate the US campaign. On Monday, he threatened to target Iran’s energy infrastructure and desalination plants if the strait stays shut. He earlier set Tehran an April 6 deadline to reopen the waterway. “There’s clearly some complacency across the market; there’s no capitulation whatsoever to be found in flows, fundamentals or through a technical analysis,” said Karen Georges, an equity fund manager at Ecofi in Paris. “Despite the rise today, I would say the market is reluctant to take a strong directional bet.”

Equities are, nonetheless, primed to rip higher on positive news about the war following large-scale unwinding of risk by hedge funds and CTAs. The concern is that, post an initial bounce, worries about the economy and the path for interest rates will trigger further volatility episodes, setting up stocks for months of roller-coaster conditions. 

European stocks are also higher across the board in the wake of a WSJ report suggesting that US President Trump is willing to end the Iran war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The Stoxx 600 is set to end 1Q lower by just over 1% and down nearly 8% from February’s record high; mining and financial services stocks leading gains. Meanwhile, energy shares are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Demant rises as much as 4.5%, the biggest gainer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Tuesday morning, after Danske Bank upgraded its rating on the stock to buy from hold
• Unilever shares rise as much as 1%, trading only marginally higher than the May 2024 low reached last week, after the company confirmed discussions to sell most of its food business to McCormick
• 4iG shares rise as much as 15% after the Hungarian telecommunications and defense group says it is selling its 49% stake in Hirtenberger Defence to Czech peer CSG
• Borregaard shares rise as much as 4.9% after an upgrade to buy from Kepler Cheuvreux, which makes a series of changes to its ratings to favor what it sees as the more resilient names in the European chemicals sector
• Ashmore rose as much as 4.5% in London on Japan Post Insurance Co.’s plans to invest roughly $1 billion more in the British money manager’s emerging markets funds
• Pets at Home shares gain as much as 5.2%, the most in two months, after the specialist retailer reported progress in turning around its Retail arm
• Raspberry Pi shares rise as much as 30% after the maker of low-cost computers said revenues for 2026 are expected to be materially higher than current market expectations
• Future slumps as much as 30%, to the lowest since October 2017, after what JPMorgan describes as a weak first-half trading update
• Inventiva shares sink as much as 20% after the French biopharmaceutical company said it expected topline results of its late-stage clinical trial evaluating lanifibranor

Space is also making headlines this week, with Virgin Galactic soaring in late trading after it resumed some sales of commercial space flights. NASA is making final preparations for the Artemis II missions, while what a history-making SpaceX IPO could mean for the space economy is discussed in the Big Take podcast. In other corporate news, Unilever said talks to sell most of its food business to McCormick are advanced and a final deal could be announced later on Tuesday. Boeing will team up with Rheinmetall to offer drones known as the Ghost Bat to Germany’s military.

The Iran war’s impact on prices is beginning to show in economic data. The euro area saw its steepest jump in inflation since 2022 as the Iran war pushed energy costs sharply higher, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates. Consumer prices rose 2.5% from a year ago in March – up from 1.9% the previous month and the highest since January 2025. Markets are pricing as many as three quarter-point hikes in the ECB’s deposit rate this year, from its current level of 2%.

“The March rise in inflation is likely the beginning of a sustained pickup,” wrote Bill Diviney, ABN Amro’s senior euro-zone economist. He expects the ECB to raise rates in April and June “in order to pre-empt any de-anchoring of inflation expectations.”

In Asia, a slump in chipmakers fueled stock losses after Monday’s rout in US-listed peers. South Korea’s Kospi index slid 4.3%, extending its drop from a February high to 20%. SK Hynix Inc. slumped more than 7%. US chipmakers such a Micron Technology Inc. and Sandisk Corp., meanwhile, underperformed in premarket trading.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar index falls. USD/JPY slips 0.2% to 159.37; Month-end flows make for choppy trading while hedge funds are rolling over short-term options exposure over the next week, Europe-based traders say. EUR/USD drops 2.9% this month, the most since July; it’s little changed on the day at 1.1469. AUD/USD rises as much as 0.3% to 0.6875 before paring gains; it’s up a fifth consecutive quarter, the longest winning streak since 2007.

In rates, treasury futures hold modest gains led belly sectors, with 5-year yields nearly 5bp richer on the day, outperforming European bonds. US session features several economic data points led by consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings, while Treasuries may receive support from month-end index rebalancing at 4pm New York time. US yields are at least 3bp richer across the curve with 5s30s spread wider by around 2bp as belly outperforms. 10-year, about 4bp lower near 4.31%, outperforms bunds and gilts. Continued belly outperformance trims 2s5s30s fly by nearly 3bp, adding to Monday’s 3.5bp drop. The below-expected euro-zone inflation data passed with little market reaction as traders await more evidence on the extent of the Iran war on price pressures.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures have pared a 3.9% advance to multiyear high to about 0.4% and around $108 per barrel for the June contract following report that US President Trump is willing to end military operation in Iran even if Strait of Hormuz remains closed.  Spot gold is up for a third session in a row, higher by 0.8%. Bitcoin is down 0.5% after a brief foray below $66,000.  

US economic data calendar includes January FHFA house price index and S&P Cotality home prices (9am), March MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers), March consumer confidence and February JOLTS job openings (10am) and March Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (12pm), Schmid (1:10pm), Barr (3pm) and Bowman (5:10pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.9%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.8%
• Russell 2000 mini +1.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
• DAX +0.7%, CAC 40 +0.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.32%
• VIX -1.7 points at 28.87
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1221.56
• euro little changed at $1.147
• WTI crude -0.9% at $101.92/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US gasoline prices climbed above an average of $4 a gallon for the first time since August 2022, one of the most visible measures of consumer pain. BBG
• President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date. WSJ
• The IRGC announced that the Strait of Hormuz is fully under the control of its soldiers, and "the slightest movement of the enemies will be hit by missiles and drones", adding that "the operation continues", IRGC's public relations channel reported.
• Strait of Hormuz to be run by multinational coalition under White House plan, The Telegraph reported; Second proposal put forward by Pakistan and regional powers. Rubio stressed there would be “no fees, and free circulation” through the key shipping route, according to one interpretation of his intervention.
• Houthis in Yemen are monitoring American movements at bases in the Horn of Africa that may signal an imminent American move in the Red Sea, according to Israeli Radio journalist. According to the Yemeni intelligence sources, Washington intends to create a maritime security zone in the Red Sea region and the base in Djibouti will become the center of command and control and rapid intervention. Yemeni officers said that there are American movements in order to bring the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait into the campaign.
• Chinese suppliers say they’re raising prices for their goods because of the recent swings in oil prices resulting from the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged impasse in the critical waterway also raises the possibility of product shortages. CNBC
• A gauge of activity in China’s sprawling manufacturing sector returned to expansion in March in part thanks to seasonal factors, but as the war in the Middle East raises supply shock risks, businesses are starting to feel the pressure. China saw manufacturing (50.4, up from 49 in Feb and ahead of the consensus forecast of 50.1) and non-manufacturing (50.1, up from 49.5 in Feb and ahead of the consensus forecast of 49.9). WSJ
• Unilever is in advanced talks to combine its food unit with McCormick, in a deal that may include a $15.7 billion upfront cash component and McCormick shares. The agreement may be announced today. BBG
• Euro-area inflation jumped the most since 2022 as the Iran war pushed energy costs sharply higher. It quickened to 2.5% this month, up from 1.9% the previous month. BBG
• Iran is pushing the Houthis to prepare for a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping, contingent upon any further escalation by the US in its war on the Islamic Republic. BBG
• Eli Lilly To Acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals For $38.00 In Cash Per Share Plus One Non-Transferrable Contingent Value Right. BBG
• States are pushing ahead with their own AI regulations despite warnings from the White House to allow the federal government to set rules for the industry. NYT

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were mixed with some indecision seen amid fluctuations in oil and mixed geopolitical headlines, including US President Trump's threats to obliterate Iran's energy infrastructure if a deal is not made soon, although he was also reported to have told aides he is willing to end the military operation in Iran without reopening Hormuz. ASX 200 rallied with gains led by strength in tech, telecoms and financials, while there was little impact from the RBA minutes, which stated that board members agreed financial conditions needed to be restrictive and that a further tightening would likely be needed, but disagreed on whether to hike at the meeting. Furthermore, members agreed that it is not possible to predict the future path of the cash rate with any confidence, given the Middle East conflict. Nikkei 225 retreated at the open but is off lows amid mixed data and fluctuations in oil. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp failed to sustain early gains and dipped into negative territory despite better-than-expected Chinese official PMI data, and with participants reflecting on a deluge of earnings releases.

Top Asian News

• Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 50.1 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 49.5).
• Chinese NBS General PMI (Mar) 50.5 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 49.5).
• Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 50.4 vs. Exp. 50 (Prev. 49.0, Low. 48.8, High. 50.5).
• Japanese Tokyo CPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.6%).
• Japanese Tokyo Core CPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.8%, Low. 1.6%, High. 2.1%).
• Japanese Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food and Energy YoY (Mar) Y/Y 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.5%).
• Japanese Retail Sales YoY (Feb) Y/Y -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 1.8%, Low. -1.1%, High. 1.3%).
• Japanese Retail Sales MoM (Feb) M/M -2.0% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. 4.1%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.9%) continue to rebound, as the STOXX 600 bounces out of correction territory. The IBEX 35 and DAX 40 outperform, while the AEX is the slight laggard due to losses in ASML. European sectors are entirely in the green, ex. Energy. Basic Resources and Financial Services top the sector pile. While a rebound in metals prices supports Basic Resources, UBS is amongst the banks supporting financials after the FT reported that Swiss lawmakers have signalled some compromise on its USD 22bln capital plan.

Top European News

• German institutes to cut 2026 economic growth forecasts amid the Iranian war, Reuters sources suggest; 2026 growth outlook seen at 0.6% (prev. 1.2%), 2027 growth seen at 0.9% (prev. 1.4%). CPI is seen at 2.8% for 2026 and 2027. Iranian war and energy costs were cited as the reasons for the cuts.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

FX

• DXY lacks direction, and holds within a 100.30-100.64 range; the peak for today was made overnight, but then sank from these levels on reports via the WSJ, which suggested that US President Trump told aides he's willing to end the war without reopening Hormuz. A factor which clearly indicates some early signs of easing tensions, though it raises concerns regarding the future governance of the Strait itself. DXY swung from peaks to troughs within an hour of the report, before then gradually pushing back towards the mid-point of the aforementioned range, as the European session got underway. Focus from a US standpoint now turns to US JOLTS, which are expected to ease to 6.87mln (from 6.946mln). A slew of Fed speakers are also on the docket, including Bowman, Barr, Goolsbee and Schmid.
• G10s are mixed against the USD. GBP is the marginal outperformer, potentially benefiting from the lower energy prices, which somewhat alleviates growth-related concerns, at least for now. Sticking on the growth front, Final UK GDP growth in Q4 printed 1% Y/Y (exp. 1%, prev. 1.2%) – a report which spurred no move in Cable. To the bottom of the pile reside the CHF and Kiwi, albeit losses are incremental at this stage.
• Elsewhere, EUR is steady, and was little moved to a resilient German jobs report, whilst a cooler-than-expected EZ inflation metric spurred some pressure in the single currency. In a bit more detail, headline Y/Y jumped to 2.5% (prev. 1.9%) and a touch beneath the consensus. As is the case across Europe, the surge in inflation has been attributed to the recent strength in energy prices; for reference, the core figure actually cooled from the prior to 2.3% (prev. 2.4%). EUR/USD fell to 1.1462 post-day before scaling back a touch. The ECB will welcome this report, given that it favours a “wait and see" approach.
• JPY is flat this morning, after relative outperformance in the prior session, spurred by jawboning. USD/JPY currently resides within a 159.48-159.97 range, and towards the lower end of the prior day’s session. Overnight, the release of softer-than-expected Retail Sales and slower Tokyo inflation had a limited impact on the JPY – ING opines that the inflation figure will not “deter BoJ’s April hike”; analysts opine that the trifecta of 1) surging oil prices, 2) weak JPY and 3) rising Shunto wage growth, all play in favour of a near-term hike. Attention now turns to the Tankan survey on Wednesday, a report which policy members brought to focus at the last BoJ confab.

Fixed Income

• Fixed income on a firmer footing as energy benchmarks initially pulled back, though WTI remains above USD 100/bbl, Brent above USD 105/bbl and Dutch TTF north of USD 50/MWh. The main update came via the WSJ, reporting that US President Trump told his aides that he is willing to end the conflict even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The move towards potentially ending the conflict has weighed on energy and, in turn, pressured yields. However, the uncertainty around Hormuz means the energy, and by association, price risks have not meaningfully diminished at this point.
• USTs are firmer but off best levels, and within 110-22+ to 111-02 parameters. Ahead, the docket is headlined by Fed speak; however, the events/topics involved somewhat diminish the likelihood of pertinent updates.
• Bunds follow global action. Initially stronger, before giving back some of the earlier gains heading into the EZ inflation measures for March – a report which encapsulates the early impact of the Iran war, and the surge in energy prices. In brief, headline Y/Y was cooler-than-expected, and plays in favour of the ECB’s “wait and see approach”. In reaction, Bunds ticked higher by a handful of ticks, though the move proved fleeting.
• Gilts in-fitting with peers. Firmer by around 50 ticks at best but have given up around half of that and are below the 88.00 mark in 87.65-88.23 parameters. No reaction to the final Q4 GDP series, or a slight upward revision to the 2025 total.
• Germany sells EUR 3.811bln vs exp. EUR 5.0bln 2.10% 2028 Schatz: b/c 1.5x (prev. 1.61x), average yield 2.62% (prev. 2.72%), retention 23.78% (prev. 22.6%).
• BoJ said it plans to buy JPY 255bln of 1–3 year JGBs three times a month in April–June (prev. JPY 270bln, three times); JPY 230bln of 3–5 year JGBs three times a month (prev. JPY 245bln, three times). Plans to buy JPY 80bln of 10–25 year JGBs three times a month in April–June (prev. JPY 95bln, three times). Plans to buy JPY 75bln of JGBs 25+ years of maturity two times a month (prev. JPY 75bln, two times).

Commodities

• Crude futures are incrementally firmer this morning after reversing earlier losses despite light newsflow. WTI May’26 resides in a USD 100.83-107.15/bbl range, whilst Brent June’26 holds within a USD 104.72-109.99/bbl. Worth noting that in recent trade benchmarks are moving a touch higher, extending further into the green.
• Overnight, the complex dipped after the WSJ reported that US President Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military operation in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Do note the IRGC continues to provide hardline commentary, with attacks on Gulf countries ongoing. Geopolitics aside, some strength was seen in the crude complex after data showed that Oman’s crude OSP jumped USD 55.90/bbl.
• Spot gold rose after comments from Fed Chair Powell and Williams indicated policy remains in a good place, helping to temper rate-hike expectations; the bullion climbed before paring gains to trade near USD 4,555/oz, with the yellow metal currently holding in a USD 4,482.66-4,619.25/oz range at the time of writing. Goldman Sachs said gold could reach USD 5,400/oz by year-end, citing low speculative positioning, expectations for two Fed rate cuts and ongoing central bank demand, with official-sector buying seen at around 60 tonnes per month.
• Copper futures marginally benefitted from hopes of an earlier end to the Middle East conflict and after Chinese PMI data topped forecast, but then pared gains given the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East conflict. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 12,122.00- 12,286.95/t range. Aluminium once again outperforms on the LME amid supply woes from the Middle East after Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain were both targeted by Iran.
• Oman's crude OSP at USD 124.05/bbl for May (vs USD 68.15/bbl for April), +USD 55.90/bbl, GME data shows.
• EU countries should prepare for prolonged disruption to energy markets from the Iran war, the EU energy commissioner said in a letter to EU energy ministers. Immediate impact on EU energy security of supply remains contained. EU countries should delay any non-emergency refinery maintenance. Countries should avoid measures that would increase fuel consumption or curb EU refinery output.
• South Africa's Finance Minister is considering lowering the fuel levy, with the decision to be announced on Tuesday, according to a Government official.
• Libya's National Oil Corporation said full production resumed at the Sharara and El Feel oilfields.
• Guyana oil production averaged 915k BPD in January and 918k BPD in February.
• Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach USD 5,400/oz by the end of 2026. Low speculative positioning and two Fed rate cuts to support this view. Projects around 60 tonnes of central bank buying per month.

Central Banks

• Fed's Williams (voter) said uncertainty around inflation path is 'high' but the economy has been more resilient than expected and the base outlook for the economy has been good. Tariffs and Iran war will push up headline inflation. Expects the unemployment rate to edge down this year and next. Economy facing ‘unusual set of circumstances’. Expects higher headline inflation near term on war and tariffs. War could both push up inflation, and depress growth. Inflation expectations consistent with 2% inflation. Expects US GDP to be 2.5% this year amid help from various factors. Expects inflation to end this year at 2.75%, and back to 2% in 2027. Economy has been resilient among changes. No signs of second round inflation impact from tariffs. Low hiring rate might be boosting economic pessimism. Job market sending out mixed signals.
• ECB's Muller said it is probable that rates will rise in the coming quarters, an April rate hike cannot be ruled out and reiterates that a hike may be needed if energy prices stay high.
• ECB’s Panetta warns against second-round wage effects; says monetary policy is better positioned vs 2022.
• RBA Minutes from March meeting stated that board members agreed financial conditions needed to be restrictive and that a further tightening would likely be needed but disagreed on whether to hike at the meeting. Agreed it is not possible to predict the future path of the cash rate with any confidence given the Middle East conflict. Rise in oil prices increased risk inflation would remain above target for a prolonged period. Oil prices around USD 100 would lift annual CPI inflation to around 5% in the June quarter. Rate hike could reduce the risk oil shock would flow into inflation expectations.
• PBoC is to maintain moderately loose monetary policy with stronger counter-cyclical adjustments, reiterates to make use of various tools in monetary policy control and to maintain ample liquidity and keep CNY stable.
• BoK Governor nominee Shin sees Middle East crisis as risk to the Korean economy and said inflationary pressure from extra budgets is limited, adds KRW liquidity is good and external factors affecting KRW have improved considerably.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump tells aides he's willing to end the war without reopening Hormuz, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• The IRGC announced that the Strait of Hormuz is fully under the control of its soldiers, and "the slightest movement of the enemies will be hit by missiles and drones", adding that "the operation continues", IRGC's public relations channel reported.
• Strait of Hormuz to be run by multinational coalition under White House plan, The Telegraph reported; Second proposal put forward by Pakistan and regional powers. Rubio stressed there would be “no fees, and free circulation” through the key shipping route, according to one interpretation of his intervention.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said it is possible to bypass the Strait of Hormuz issue and that economic interests exist to ensure free flow of oil and gas, while ideas have been proposed for post-war transfer of energy from Persian Gulf to Mediterranean ports.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Iran's enriched uranium is Trump's focus right now and US is leading military options to open Strait of Hormuz. Refuses to set any timeline on ending the Iran war.
• Israel Military Spokesperson said "we are prepared to keep operating for weeks to come".
• Houthis in Yemen are monitoring American movements at bases in the Horn of Africa that may signal an imminent American move in the Red Sea, according to Israeli Radio journalist. According to the Yemeni intelligence sources, Washington intends to create a maritime security zone in the Red Sea region and the base in Djibouti will become the center of command and control and rapid intervention. Yemeni officers said that there are American movements in order to bring the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait into the campaign.
• Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied US President Trump’s assertions that Washington and Tehran were engaged in talks, according to WSJ.
• One of Iran's desalination plants on Qeshm Island is out of service since the strike and short-term repairs are deemed impossible, Borna reported citing a Health Ministry official.
• US reportedly attacks large ammunition depot in Isfahan, Iran, according to WSJ.
• Drone crashes in an open area at Iraq's West Qurna 1 oilfield without exploding, state news reported.
• Chinese Foreign Ministry said three Chinese ships recently sailed through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Saudi Arabia intercepts 10 drones, Al Jazeera reported.
• Power outage hits east of Tehran following explosions.
• Explosions heard in Iraq's Sulaymaniyah province and from US HQ in Baghdad's Victoria base, according to Tasnim.
• Italy denies the US use of its Sigonella naval air station, according to Italian press.
• Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov says the Middle East crisis may spill over into a wider conflict.

US Event Calendar

• 9:00 am: Jan FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
• 9:45 am: Mar MNI Chicago PMI, est. 55, prior 57.7
• 10:00 am: Mar Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 87.9, prior 91.2
• 10:00 am: Feb JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6890k, prior 6946k
• 12:00 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks at Eco Mobility Project
• 1:10 pm: Fed’s Schmid Speaks on Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook
• 3:00 pm: Fed’s Barr Discusses Stablecoin Regulation
• 5:10 pm: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Small Business

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The market tone has become decidedly more positive overnight, with the driver being a Wall Street Journal report saying that President Trump had told aides he was willing to end the US military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. So that’s raised hopes that the current phase of the conflict will wind down soon, and we’ve seen a clear market reaction in response. Most obviously, Brent crude oil futures have slipped back, coming down above $115/bbl before the article came out, to $113.04/bbl as we go to press. Moreover, equity and bond markets have rallied too, with S&P 500 futures up +0.80% this morning, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield is down another -2.4bps to 4.32%.

According to the WSJ article, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to open the Strait of Hormuz would push the conflict beyond the four to six week timeline, and Trump had decided that the US should achieve its main goals of degrading Iran’s navy and missile stocks, and continue to pressure Iran diplomatically to resume trade flows. So even though the Strait of Hormuz wouldn’t return to normal in that scenario, markets still took the report positively, because it raised the perceived probability that the conflict might soon end, avoiding the more escalatory scenarios like further damage to energy infrastructure.

That said, the overnight newsflow hasn’t been entirely positive. Notably, oil prices had moved higher before the WSJ article, because Kuwait Petroleum Corp said that an oil tanker was attacked by Iran in a Dubai port. And in Asia, equity markets are down across the board, with losses for the KOSPI (-3.41%), the Nikkei (-1.16%), the Hang Seng (-0.51%), the CSI 300 (-0.58%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.38%). That’s come despite a modest upside surprise in China’s official PMIs, with the manufacturing PMI at a one-year high of 50.4 (vs. 50.1 expected), whilst the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 (vs. 49.9 expected).

That overnight newsflow adds to the mixed signals markets have been getting over the last 24 hours. Indeed, Trump posted yesterday that if a deal weren’t reached shortly with Iran, and if the Strait of Hormuz weren’t opened, then the US would target “all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island”. But in the same post, he also said that the US was “in serious discussions with a new, and more reasonable, regime to end our military operations in Iran”, which added to hopes for a negotiated settlement. So given there were signs pointing in both directions, markets were fairly steady in response. We also heard that Pakistan’s Foreign Minister will be visiting China today, after his meeting with officials from Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey over the weekend, raising questions whether Beijing might play a role in guaranteeing any possible future ceasefire.

Given the competing headlines, Brent crude ended yesterday broadly flat, although it was still up +0.19% to $112.78/bbl, marking its highest closing level since July 2022. That came alongside a more pronounced rise for WTI (+3.25%), which also closed above $100/bbl for the first time since July 2022, at $102.88/bbl. Indeed, we’re now at the last day of Q1, and despite the overnight stabilisation in oil prices, Brent crude is on track for its biggest quarterly gain since Q3 1990 when the Gulf War began, having risen over +85% this quarter as it stands. So that outpaces the +81% bounce in Q2 2020, when oil prices recovered after more than halving in March 2020 as the pandemic moved into its most serious phase.

Otherwise, rates markets put in a decent performance yesterday, with investors turning their focus towards the dovish implications from a potential growth shock, rather than inflation. In addition, we heard from Fed Chair Powell, whose comments were interpreted dovishly, saying that inflation expectations were “well anchored beyond the short term”. So that eased fears that the Fed would rush to hike, and he also said that “policy is in a good place for us to wait and see”. Later on, we also heard similar comments from New York Fed President Williams who said “policy is well positioned” and that long-term inflation expectations were consistent with the Fed’s 2% goal.

That backdrop meant investors priced out the chance of central bank rate hikes this year. For example, Fed futures were expecting 3bps of rate cuts by December at the close, a change from much of last week when they were pricing in rate hikes this year. Meanwhile at the ECB, the number of hikes this year also fell from 76bps on Friday to 74bps by the close. So even though Brent crude was basically steady yesterday, the market tone became noticeably less hawkish.

With fewer rate hikes priced in, that also helped to bring yields down on both sides of the Atlantic. That was particularly clear for US Treasuries, where the 10yr yield (-8.0bps) saw its biggest decline since the start of the conflict, falling back to 4.35%. It was a similar story in Europe, where 10yr bund yields (-5.8bps) fell back from their post-2011 high to 3.03%, whilst 10yr OATs (-6.5bps) fell from their post-2009 high to 3.77%. Interestingly, there was also a marked decline in real yields, with the US 10yr real yield (-6.9bps) down to 2.04%. But even with yesterday’s rally, 10yr Treasury yields are still on course for their biggest monthly jump since 2024, with the 10yr yield up by +39bps since the end of February.

Despite the bond rally, equities had a more mixed session on Monday. European stocks outperformed, with the STOXX 600 (+0.94%), the FTSE 100 (+1.61%) and the DAX (+1.18%) all seeing solid gains. However, the market mood deteriorated after Europe went home and the S&P 500 ultimately closed -0.39% lower on the day, despite trading +0.92% at the open. So that left the S&P 500 within 1% of technical correction territory, down -9.10% from its late January peak. A large part of yesterday’s decline came due to a slump in chips stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down by -4.23%, even as most S&P 500 constituents closed higher on the day supported by lower nominal and real yields.

Otherwise yesterday, we did get a few data releases. In Germany, the flash CPI print moved up as expected in March, with the EU-harmonised measure rising to +2.8%, having been at +2.0% in February. We’ll get the Euro Area-wide print later this morning, so that’s one to keep an eye on for the ECB, particularly with pricing for a rate hike in the balance currently. Over in the US, we also had the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index, which fell to -0.2 in March (vs. 2.0 expected).

Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for March, German unemployment for March, the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for March, the JOLTS job openings for February, and the FHFA house price index for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee, Barr and Bowman, and the ECB’s Panetta, Muller, Kazimir and Sleijpen.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 08:41

U.S. Gasoline Prices Hit Politically Sensitive $4 Level As Trump Eyes Iran War Off-Ramp

The overnight Wall Street Journal report that President Trump told aides he is willing to wind down the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted (and appeared to confirm this narrative in a social media post this morning) comes just as the national average gasoline price hit the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon threshold, underscoring the delicate balancing act the administration is facing in managing battlefield objectives and domestic fuel costs.

The latest AAA data shows gasoline prices nationwide topped $4 a gallon on Monday, a 35% increase for Regular 87 at the pump and the largest price shock on record dating back to 2004.

Regular 87 gasoline prices at the pump nationwide have returned to the price shock levels seen during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Largest monthly price shock on record.

Early last week, Bonnie Herzog, managing director and senior consumer analyst at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note that when fuel prices spike to these "psychological threshold" levels, above $3 and approaching $4 a gallon, consumers tend to drive less and fill up their tanks less frequently.

"Historically, when retail gas prices increase (especially above the $3/gal psychological threshold, although that's been rebased higher), consumers make the concerted decision to drive less, don't always fill up their tanks (i.e., lower fill rates)," Herzog told clients.

But Herzog pointed back to history, noting that the real demand destruction for drivers comes when gasoline prices at the pump reach $5 a gallon.

She noted, "Further, we recognize that, in times of a significantly rising fuel-price environment, consumers may opt to trade down the fuel-price spectrum (i.e., from premium to regular)."

Furthermore, AAA data shows the national average diesel price has surged 45% this month to $5.45 per gallon. That marks the largest spike on record.

The price shock is already sending shockwaves through the real economy. Diesel powers the industrial backbone of the nation: trucking fleets, rail networks, shipping, farm equipment, construction machinery, backup generators, and broad segments of heavy logistics. When diesel prices spike this quickly, cost shock hits companies at the pump, with logistics firms passing fuel surcharges on to customers.

We warned readers on Monday about the unfolding "global demand destruction" and noted that the energy shock was already beginning to ripple outward from Asia.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 08:20

Judge Reassigns Elon Musk Cases After Accusations Of Bias

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A judge in Delaware on March 30 said she is reassigning cases involving Elon Musk after she was accused of being biased against him.

Delaware Court of Chancery Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick said in a letter to lawyers that she was taking the step because “disproportionate media attention surrounding a judge’s handling of an action is detrimental to the administration of justice.”

Attorneys representing Musk recently filed a motion for recusal or reassignment, pointing to how McCormick on LinkedIn had clicked that she supported a post that celebrated a 2026 ruling against Musk in California. The post, from a jury consultant, said “sorry, Elon,” and congratulated the legal firms that represented the plaintiff in the case as “standing up for the little guy against the richest man in the world.”

“Defendants cannot ignore the recent reaction by this Court to LinkedIn posts attacking Mr. Musk and his chosen counsel, regarding a case with overlapping factual allegations in the consolidated matter, and that bears directly on the appearance of impartiality in these actions,” Musk’s attorneys wrote in their motion.

McCormick had in 2024 ruled that a compensation package for Musk as CEO of Tesla agreed to by the Tesla board of directors was too large, a decision later overturned by the Delaware Supreme Court.

McCormick initially said that she did not click to support the LinkedIn post in question.

“I either did not click the ’support‘ icon at all, or I did so accidentally. I do not believe that I did it accidentally,” the judge wrote in a previous letter to lawyers.

“So, after learning of this issue last night, I logged into LinkedIn, searched for the post based on the screenshot, and tried to make sure that the support icon was not ’clicked on.' I then reported the suspicious activity to LinkedIn.”

LinkedIn did not respond to a request for comment by time of publication.

The judge said she would review the motion, and on Monday agreed to reassign the cases.

However, McCormick maintained that she was not biased against Musk.

“The motion for recusal rests on a false premise—that I support a LinkedIn post about Mr. Musk, which I do not in fact support,” she wrote.

“I am not biased against the defendants in these actions. In fact, I dismissed a suit against Mr. Musk just last year.”

Lawyers for Musk declined to comment on the development. Musk had not appeared to remark on the reassignment on X, which he owns and on which he frequently posts.

* * * Give this a shot. Full refund if it doesn't work. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 08:05

Unilever In "Advanced Discussions" To Sell Food Unit To Old Bay Maker

Unilever Plc confirmed it is "now in advanced discussions" with Maryland-based spice maker McCormick & Company to sell its food business unit in a $15.7 billion transaction and said a final deal could be announced as soon as today. 

"The Company is now in advanced discussions with McCormick & Company ("McCormick") regarding a potential transaction," the Anglo-Dutch consumer goods company wrote in a press release.

Unilever noted, "Work remains ongoing to agree and finalise a transaction and it is possible that an agreement could be concluded today, although there can be no certainty that a transaction will be agreed."

Unilever explained that if the "transaction were to proceed," it would combine most of its food business unit, excluding certain assets such as those in India, with the Hunt Valley-based spice company in a transaction valued at $15.7 billion.

After closing, Unilever and its shareholders are expected to own 65% of the combined company. The deal would be structured as a Reverse Morris Trust, making it tax-free for U.S. federal income tax purposes for Unilever and its shareholders.

The transaction is a big move for the spice company, known across the U.S. East Coast for its Old Bay seasoning and other brands such as French's mustard and Frank's RedHot. 

McCormick is a much smaller company whose business generates about half of Unilever's food unit. But the proposed transaction comes as Unilever pivots further toward beauty, personal care, and home products - higher margin items - while transforming McCormick into a major food player.

Wall Street analysts are mixed. 

"We aren't overly impressed by what we can see of Unilever's potential disposal of its food business," RBC Capital Markets analyst James Edwardes Jones told clients earlier. He added that the current deal means Unilever has full ownership of a division dominated by its own two brands, Hellmann's mayonnaise and Knorr stock cubes.

Jones added that Unilever will have less ownership of a company with an even bigger brand portfolio. He said, "We are not sure of the justification for introducing partial ownership of a less concentrated business."

Let's remind readers that Unilever's pivot into beauty also comes as blockbuster GLP-1 weight-loss drugs sweep the nation and become more affordable, which means Americans are reducing their caloric intake.

Unilever shares in London are up 1%, while McCormick shares in premarket trading in New York are up 4%.

When the proposed deal first surfaced in financial outlets earlier this month, Goldman analyst Natasha de la Grense had "lots of questions on structure" of the proposed deal (read note).

In addition to the Unilever-McCormick proposed deal that could soon be finalized, there were reports that the Anglo-Dutch consumer goods company will freeze hiring worldwide because of price shocks stemming from the US-Iran conflict.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 07:20

AI Is "New Front Door To Commerce" As Consumers Ditch Google For Chatbots

Shoptalk, one of the retail and e-commerce industry's top U.S. conferences, took place in Las Vegas last week, where Goldman analysts had one key takeaway for clients on Monday morning: AI is beginning to reshape how consumers shop. 

Analysts Brooke Roach and Kate McShane, among others, attended the conference and listened to retailers, consumer brands, and technology vendors focus on the evolving consumer space in the era of AI.

Their top takeaway was that AI is emerging as a "new front door to commerce," and instead of beginning product searches on Google or Amazon, an increasing number of consumers are turning to chatbots to decide what to buy.

"Brands and retailers noted that consumers are increasingly beginning their shopping journey inside AI platforms rather than on brand websites or search engines, with adoption accelerating rapidly over the past several months," the analyst noted. 

Here are more takeaways from Goldman's analysts after attending Shoptalk:

The front door to commerce is shifting to AI

• Brands and retailers noted that consumers are increasingly beginning their shopping journey inside AI platforms rather than on brand websites or search engines, with adoption accelerating rapidly over the past several months.

• GAP stated it is seeing stronger purchase intent and higher conversion from customers arriving through agentic channels, and described itself as explicitly not in a wait-and-see mode. The company also noted it is an early partner on Google's Universal Commerce Protocol, which allows the merchant to bring its own experience including loyalty, promotions, and cart capabilities directly into LLM environments, rather than pushing users to a generic external destination.

Enhancing consumer relevance and enabling product research / purchase decisions

• Brands noted that becoming relevant within LLMs is a different challenge from search engine optimization, as LLM crawlers ingest content differently and are blocked more often than classic search crawlers.

• Sephora announced the launch of its own app inside ChatGPT, which allows users to connect their Sephora accounts and receive personalized beauty advice (e.g., skin type, shade matching). Management is currently experimenting with their entire ecosystem, and is using AI as another channel to extend their core proposition of being a trusted beauty advisor.

• Behr partnered with Google's Gemini to launch a paint visualizer designed to help DIY customers overcome color paralysis and feel confident in their purchases.

• HD has a shopping agent called Magic Apron, designed to help customers find easy answers on home improvement projects.

• LOW is using their AI-shopping assistant MyLow to help associates in stores and deliver personalized recommendations to the customers. Management noted that customer expectations are changing, as they now expect comprehensive answers, not just keyword-based results.

Trust and authenticity increasingly important

• RDDT noted that consumer trust in online information is declining, as users are rejecting AI-generated content given its tendency to regurgitate information from other sources. Consumers value authentic perspectives and are turning to their platform for experience-based answers.

• AEO emphasized the importance of continuously testing marketing creatives with customers and being attentive to what resonates and what doesn't. They found that AI-generated content must be clearly identifiable on the platform, so customers can trust that the company is not attempting to deceive them.

As consumers shift product searches from traditional Google queries to AI-powered answer engines, the brands and platforms that establish an AI presence first could capture meaningful tailwinds.

Professional subscribers can find the full list of stocks Goldman analysts believe are "well-positioned to benefit" here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 06:55

My Tuesday morning train reads:

• Three Reasons the Stock Market Can Endure the War: Stocks haven’t fallen as much as you might expect given the Iran war. There are good reasons for that. (Wall Street Journal)

• Anthropic’s Claude popularity with paying consumers is skyrocketing: Whatever the final outcome for Anthropic from its feud with the Department of Defense, the attention it has generated — coupled with the company’s funny Super Bowl ads taking aim at OpenAI and the surging popularity of Claude Code — has made Anthropic more popular with consumers than ever. (TechCrunch) see also AI adoption, productivity and employment: Evidence from European firms: “The study finds that AI increases worker output rather than replacing labour in the short run, though longer-term effects remain uncertain.” (European Investment Bank)

• Wall Street Bonus Comp Drives NYC High-end Housing: The 2025 numbers are in and they are big, and so are my charts. (Housing Notes)

• Should Mom Have Private Equity in Her 401K?  There has been a significant push by the private equity industry and traditional asset management firms to now include PE investments in retail client retirement accounts. Should mom include private investments in her 401K? Should my son? Should I? Do we understand these investments? (SSRN)

• Asset Manager Consolidation Continues as Structural Shifts Reshape Industry: Fee compression, declines in fundraising, and shifting limited partner priorities are driving the spree of mergers and acquisitions. (Chief Investment Officer)

• Craigslist Made Me Rich. Giving the Money Away Is Easy.: Craig Newmark on why giving away a fortune is simpler than people think. A refreshing take on philanthropy from someone who actually does it without the ego. (New York Times)

• America Downs Cheap Drones With Million-Dollar Missiles. A Fix Is In the Works. Defense companies are racing to develop cheaper missiles, still the most effective way to down drones (Wall Street Journal) see also Cheap drones are reshaping modern warfare — and catching the U.S. off guard: Over the Gulf region right now, relatively cheap Iranian drones are being taken out by costly and difficult-to-manufacture U.S. interceptor missiles. A typical Shahed-136 costs Tehran roughly $20,000 to $50,000, while interceptors, such as the Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), cost millions. (NPR)

• Why ICE Is Allowed to Impersonate Law Enforcement: “There’s no accountability,” one expert tells WIRED of ICE’s ability to lie to the public. “The consequence of this is that it’s going to be a systemic harm across all law enforcement.” (Wired)

• AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is far more worrying: LLMs-gone-rogue dominated coverage, but had nothing to do with the targeting. Instead, it was choices made by human beings, over many years, that gave us this atrocity. Blaming AI was convenient cover for what was actually a human decision-making failure. The real story is about accountability, not algorithms. (The Guardian)

• After more than a decade, Lisa Kudrow and ‘The Comeback’ make a timely, final return. Like the mythical city of Brigadoon, Lisa Kudrow’s “The Comeback” has returned to television after many years away, with the difference that time has not stood still for its inhabitants, older in a changing world that values them less and which they navigate with less assurance. (Los Angeles Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Judd Kessler, the Howard Marks Endowed Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The winner of the Vernon L. Smith Ascending Scholar Prize,he is the author of is Lucky by Design The Hidden Economics You Need to Get More of What You Want.

 

The Hateful Eight is 85% of S&P 500 Decline

Source: Paul Kedrosky

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

China's Quiet Gains During US-Israel War On Iran

Authored by Hamza Zaman via RealClearDefense,

The Iran conflict continues to protract despite President Trump’s assumption of a quick and easy victory.

The goals of regime change and the decimation of the Iranian ballistic missile program remain unfulfilled, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz further adds to the strategic qualms of the Western powers.

The GCC states are also facing significant damage to their services industry, transport infrastructure and energy sector.

While both sides suffer great losses in this protracted conflict, America’s biggest geopolitical rival – China – seems to be gaining palpable economic and strategic benefits from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Challenges to Petrodollar and Yuan’s Rise against U.S. Dollar

Iranian strikes on GCC energy infrastructure, in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Iranian oil refineries and gas infrastructure, sent shockwaves through global energy supply chains. This resulted in supply chain disruptions, shortages, rationing and price hikes. These energy supplies are traded in U.S. dollars and constitute a discernible source of demand for the U.S. dollar. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz further amplifies supply chain disruption, forcing buyers to choose alternative sources, including Russia. Iran’s announcement of a safe passage for oil tankers in exchange for payment in Yuan is being hailed as a direct assault on the primacy of the U.S. dollar and the petrodollar system.

The outcome of these events is the diminution of the U.S. dollar's hegemony and the rise of the Chinese Yuan. China continues to purchase discounted oil from Iran in Yuan, and the procurement of Russian oil will also be in non-USD denominations. The fall of the U.S. dollar will accentuate China’s rise as a major competitor of the U.S.. China is already vying for a common BRICS currency, and its efforts will intensify in the future, as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken. The war in the Middle East presents an opportunity for the Chinese Yuan to accentuate China’s geoeconomic rise.

Observing and Analyzing American Military Activities

China’s observation of Operation Epic Fury provides its military with an opportunity to gather ample data on American military tactics and strategies. It also provides China with insight into the capabilities and limitations of American weapon systems. The downing of American fighter jets, including F-15E Strike Eagles, KC-135 Stratotanker, F-35A and Q-9 Reapers, as well as the destruction of radars and limitations of American air defense systems in the Middle East, is an opportunity for the Chinese military to evaluate its military arsenal and reassess its own capabilities and limitations vis-à-vis American military prowess.

With the help of artificial intelligence and machine learning, the Chinese military would analyze these weapon systems and military strategies and create real-life war-like simulations for the Chinese military with precise data. The destruction and limitation of the American military assets will also persuade global vendors to pursue Chinese combat-tested alternatives from the May 2025 Pakistan-India War, thus augmenting Chinese defense exports.  

Strengthening Rare Earth Leverage against American Military Industrial Complex

The involvement of the U.S. in another war in the Middle East has the American military industrial complex up and running. Given the intense bombardment, fast-paced depletion of its air defence interceptors and the destruction of radars, the U.S. is expected to swiftly replenish its arsenal. However, the U.S. reliance on China for rare earth minerals – essential for the American military industrial complex – indicates that the U.S. strategic autonomy is compromised. In response to the Trump administration’s tariff war and ban on advanced chips exports to China, China meticulously weaponized rare earth minerals, effectively defying the actions of the Trump administration. In the wake of the Iran conflict, the Trump administration’s dependence on China for its rare earth needs magnifies, actively putting China in an advantageous position.

The Chinese government can tactfully play its cards, forcing the U.S. to continue the exports of advanced chips to China as well as completely abolish the exorbitant tariffs on Chinese products.

Strategic Space in the Indo-Pacific

In order to replace the lost batteries and interceptors, the U.S. decided to transfer its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system from the Korean Peninsula to the Middle East. Additionally, the U.S. moved 2500 marines and USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship, stationed in Japan, to the Middle East, with the reported plan of the takeover of Kharg Island – Iran’s predominant energy export hub. This, however, aggravates the security apprehensions of the American allies in the Indo-Pacific, especially South Korea and Japan. Given the Trump administration’s diversion of resources, these states will have to reconfigure their security policies and adopt a more amicable approach towards China. The Chinese government will welcome such developments, perceiving them as a strategic space in the Indo-Pacific. In the wake of reduced American military presence in the region, China will be in a better position to secure its strategic interests along the Strait of Malacca, consolidating its supply chain.

The longer the conflict protracts, the deeper the U.S. will be engulfed in another forever war. This may create temporary energy disruptions for China as well as complications for its BRI program. However, the reoriented focus of the U.S. on military campaigns will allow China to continue its economic rise, backed by innovation and advanced cutting-edge technologies. The stature of China will continue to be amplified as a non-interventionist state, believing in regional connectivity and shared economic growth. This scenario envisages more states swaying to the Chinese camp in the coming years, broadening the scope of BRICS+ and a common BRICS currency.

Hamza Zaman holds an M.Phil. degree in International Relations from Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan. He works as an Assistant Research Associate at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Pakistan.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 06:30

Liberal MP Labels X A "Massive Problem" For Allowing Brits To Criticize Mass Immigration

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A British Liberal Democrat MP has openly admitted what the political class really fears about Elon Musk’s X: it lets ordinary Britons speak freely about the disaster of mass immigration.

In a clip that exploded across the platform on Monday, Cheltenham MP Max Wilkinson described X as a “massive problem” precisely because it gives critics of unchecked migration a voice.

“It’s a really easy [way] to get some content out about how you think immigration is too high, or immigration is the big thing that’s tearing the country apart… X is now making sure that you can have your voice heard in a really easy way that you couldn’t in the past,” he complained.

This is not some fringe rant. Wilkinson, the Lib Dems’ Home Office spokesperson, simply said the quiet part out loud. While the establishment lectures the public about “tolerance” and “diversity,” it seethes at the idea that native Brits can now push back online without gatekeepers filtering their concerns.

The backlash was instant and brutal. Toby Young of the Free Speech Union fired back: “Labour MP Max Wilkinson says the quiet part out loud: He doesn’t like X because it enables people who think immigration is too high to have their voices heard.”

Telegraph journalist Allison Pearson was even sharper: “God forbid people should be able to say on X that immigration is far too high. Or that it is causing problems for our way of life. Lib Dem MP Max Wilkinson thinks those opinions should be silenced. How dare he!”

This admission lands at the perfect moment to expose the broader pattern of suppression. It confirms exactly why the government has been so desperate to rein in platforms like X.

As we have highlighted, the UK’s relentless and ongoing push to ban or restrict X has been predicated on protecting children, yet is clearly about narrative control:

The same government that lectures about “hate” has already banned a teacher for the crime of saying migrants should respect our laws or leave:

Samuel Everett’s posts – “If you don’t respect our laws, culture and way of life you should leave, nobody is forcing you to stay” and “deploy the navy” on small boats – earned him an indefinite professional ban even, despite an independent panel clearing him of ‘racism’.

The government has also jailed a man for 18 months over two spicy anti-immigration tweets viewed just 33 times.

Last year alone Britain’s speech gulag saw 10,000 people arrested for social media posts.

The crackdown reaches into schools too. The Green Party wants to teach children radical ideology regarding immigration.

While the current Labour government urges schools to snitch on “anti-Muslim hostility” in an Orwellian dragnet.

It even produced a video game that brands kids “terrorists” for questioning mass migration:

Counter-terror police ran an advert warning teens that sharing “funny content” could be terrorism.

Meanwhile the demographic transformation accelerates. Migrants are set to swallow 40 percent of new UK homes by 2030.

A recent caller to Talk TV perfectly captured how most British people feel about it all:

And the hypocrisy never stops. The same regime is introducing an “anti-Muslim hate” definition while branding the Union Flag a tool of hate in leaked strategy documents.

Wilkinson’s outburst is the clearest proof yet: the real “threat” to the establishment isn’t hate, it’s democracy. They cannot win the argument on open borders, so they attack the platform that lets the public make it.

Britain does not need more speech restrictions. It needs politicians who listen instead of silencing the people they are supposed to serve. X is working exactly as intended – giving a voice to the voiceless. That is why the elites hate it, and why millions of us will keep using it, by hook or by crook.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 03:30

Tracking The Last UK-Bound Jet Fuel Tanker As Shortages Near

We outlined the early signs of global demand destruction and worsening energy chaos in a note earlier on Monday, mapping the regional dominoes and the order in which they are likely to fall. Turning to the UK, the last known jet fuel shipment from the Middle East is due to arrive later this week, a major warning that aviation disruptions could soon materialize.

The Financial Times reports that the Libyan-flagged Maetiga vessel, loaded with jet fuel from Saudi Arabia, is set to dock in the UK on Thursday.

Maetiga is currently transiting off the coast of Portugal.

"No other UK-bound cargoes from the region are visible on the water, given the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz," the FT noted.

The UK has heavily relied on jet fuel transiting the Hormuz chokepoint for several years after phasing out Russian supplies. Analysts warn that airlines may begin to feel the supply crunch in late April if disruptions in Hormuz persist. 

As of Monday, northwest European jet fuel prices were roughly double prewar levels. In Asia, Singapore kerosene is trading at more than $200 a barrel, more than double the level at the start of the year.

"Market understanding is that fuel shortages are not far away in some countries," and "higher prices are to trickle through the entire supply chain and will be felt by all," Janiv Shah, vice-president of oil markets at consultancy Rystad Energy, told the outlet.

According to UBS, a shortage of jet fuel in Asia, along with very high prices for what is available, is now leading to more flight cancellations.

As we noted in "Global Demand Destruction: Subsidies, Empty Gas Stations, Rationing, Flight Cancelations, Export Limits, Price Controls," the regional order in which the energy chaos unfolds is Asia first, then Africa and Europe, before reaching the US, mostly California.

Via JPMorgan:

Source

Europe sources a shocking amount of jet fuel through the Hormuz chokepoint, upwards of 40%, and the UK is especially exposed, both directly and through imports routed via the Netherlands and Belgium.

Lars van Wageningen, research and consultancy manager at data provider Insights Global, pointed out that supply chains are not broken just yet but are being reshuffled, indicating that European buyers will seek additional jet fuel supplies from refineries in West Africa and the US.

Two weeks ago:

Oil is bad. Products are worse pic.twitter.com/rxvlhDNFsv

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 19, 2026

Deutsche Bank and UBS have warned for weeks:

• U.S. Airlines "Nearly 100% Unhedged" Against Energy Shock

The UK government has told travelers not to worry yet, which is usually the moment to start worrying. Energy shocks do not hit everywhere at once. As we point out, first through Asia, then into Africa, Europe, and eventually onto the US West Coast.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 02:45

US Should Start Removing Its Troops From Germany, Proposes AfD Co-Leader Chrupalla

Via Remix News,

Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-chair Tino Chrupalla spoke out in favor of withdrawing American troops from Germany. During a party congress in Saxony, he stressed that, if AfD comes to power, this should be the first step in implementing the party’s program, which calls for the removal of all allied forces from Germany and a withdrawal from NATO’s nuclear weapons sharing system.

“Let’s start implementing this program by withdrawing U.S. troops,” he said, as reported by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, cited by Do Rzeczy.

The proposal received loud applause by the audience.

Chrupalla also argued that Germany should not be involved in international military operations, praising Spain for opposing U.S. use of its bases for its conflict with Iran.

“And that is exactly right. Spain is not interfering in this war,” he said.

His criticism of American troops on German soil comes after his sharp criticism of Trump’s decision to launch a war against Iran.

“I am extremely disappointed in Donald Trump when it comes to his campaign promises,” Chrupalla during an appearance on Markus Lanz earlier this month.

“During the election campaign, he also accused Kamala Harris, that she would start World War III. And now we are on the cusp of having probably started the Third World War with Donald Trump. And that’s a breach of his word, which I really resent and which the American people also resent, who incidentally reject this war in Iran at a much higher rate than Germans. So, 70 percent of Americans do not want this war and do not support it.

Chrupalla also stated it was clear the United States was dragged into the war by Israel.

“And I think the Americans, as you can really see now if you look at all the events, were dragged into this war by Israel. There were serious negotiations where Oman, as a peacemaker, came to an agreement with Israel together with the USA, and they basically started bombing Iran on the same day. The Omani Foreign Minister has described this as a huge mistake. The entire Arab world has labeled it a mistake. The Norwegian Foreign Minister has described it as a mistake. It has also been labelled a mistake by Turkey. You can’t ignore all that. These are all countries in this region that are naturally extremely worried that this will escalate into a conflagration. And that’s what we’re seeing now. It’s a huge wildfire.”

In his most recent speech, Chrupalla also addressed Russia’s war against Ukraine. He announced that the AfD would “bring about peace” and that after the conflict ends, Ukrainians in Germany should return to their home country, criticizing the current refugee benefits system.

“This is exactly what must end. All Ukrainians must go back,” he said

Chrupalla’s speech made it clear that the AfD aims to take power in Germany, at both the state and national levels. “We must develop, moving from an opposition party to a governing party,” he said during the party convention in Löbau, as quoted by Deutsche Welle.

Germany’s next federal elections will take place only in March 2029. At that time, Chrupalla plans for the AfD to have a prime minister in Saxony and an AfD chancellor as the leader of Germany. Chrupalla also admitted that this requires further capacity-building and preparing party structures for governance.

Noting that AfD must no longer be perceived as a single-issue party, presumably referring to its focus on implementing mass deportations, and must demonstrate concrete results in government going forward.

“At some point, we will have to present our voters with successes,” he emphasized.

According to Bild reports, the party has already begun organizational preparations to take over the government by establishing a special working group for participation in the government.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 02:00

Global Energy Crisis Or Iranian Surrender In Five Weeks?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

The last time global energy markets witnessed a shock similar to what we might see this year was during the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. Tensions were escalating in the aftermath of the Yom Kippur War when the Arab Coalition launched a surprise attack against Israel. OPEC nations joined forces to cut off oil to Israeli allies including the US. This froze around 15% of oil exports to America, triggering market speculation, hording and price inflation.

The infection spread to Asian markets long dependent on the Middle East for energy resources. This slowed industrial capacity and many governments imposed rationing and price controls.

Images of long lines of cars at gas stations and people filling up extra containers remain burned into the collective memory of anyone who lived through that era. However, the real threat to the US was not supply shortages; rather, it was the prospect of a market cascade.

Stagflation coupled with supply chain vulnerabilities were exacerbated by public panic. Stock markets also plunged into recession territory in the expectation of an industrial slowdown. The embargo lasted only five months, but the damage was extensive.

Things have changed quite dramatically since the 1970s. The US is far less dependent on energy resources from the Middle East, though, any shocks to the global oil trade have the ability to ripple out and affect American markets. Furthermore, Arab oil producers are now largely allied with the US, which means there’s less risk of a prolonged shutdown due to conflict.

In the case of the Strait of Hormuz, any direct damage to America is minimal. Only 7% of all oil shipments to the US actually travel through the Hormuz, and, Venezuelan oil is helping to fill that gap. The greater danger is rooted in globalism and the interdependent trade system.

For example, US allies like Australia, India, Japan, and the Philippines are heavily exposed to the Hormuz shutdown. Australia is currently one month away from supply shortages and the country has little to no backup. The Philippines has already declared a state of emergency and established ration policies; they have perhaps 2 months of emergency supplies. Japan is currently tapping into strategic oil reserves and they are boosting coal fired power.

China, is facing significant exposure, with 15% of their oil supplies coming directly from Iranian wells and around 35% of their total oil supply traveling through the Hormuz. China has around 4 months of reserves before crisis hits them like a freight train.

Most Asian countries that are reliant on oil and natural gas passing through the Hormuz have around two months before they start to see public panic and long lines at gas stations similar to 1973.

Iran claims that they intend to let “non-hostile ships” pass the strait, but they’ve stopped multiple Chinese ships this week after this announcement was made. It is likely that war conditions will continue for at least another month, and, in the worst case scenario, the Hormuz could remain closed well beyond the cutoff date for many at-risk countries. The longer the war goes on, the greater the chance of a market cascade.

I’ve noticed that there are some bought-and-paid-for “prognosticators” out there adding their own propaganda spin to these events, including the notion that the west is on the verge of collapse because of the Hormuz closure. In reality, the east is far more economically exposed than the west is to this war. That said, there are risks to the US, and they are reliant on how long the conflict lingers.

Energy Crisis, Election Dangers And Global Economic Warfare

As I noted in October of 2024 in my article “The Atlantic Council Has Big Plans For A War Between The US And Iran”, there has been a concerted effort among globalists to lure Americans and Europeans into long term conflicts with Iran and with Russia. As I noted in 2024:

“The establishment media reports that Iran hacked the Trump campaign’s election strategies and gave them to the Harris camp. There are also rumors spread by US intelligence agencies that Iran was working to have Trump assassinated. Are these claims true? There’s little public evidence available to prove it.

Maybe Iran really wants to take Trump down. Or, maybe this is part of a plot to ensure that Trump backs a full blown war with Iran should he win the election. Trump has said repeatedly that he intends to end the war in Ukraine upon his return to the White House. This would ruin over a decade of planning by the Atlantic Council. But what if they can sink the US into a different conflict with the same potential for a world war? That’s what Iran is – Another linchpin…”

I would note that “world war” can take many forms. It could be a war using economic weapons rather than nukes. It could be a series of proxy wars that spiral and spread.

The Ukraine theater serves as a proxy war in which Russia indirectly engages with NATO and Russia is now forced to sustain its military posture for far longer than it expected at a much higher cost. Iran has the potential to become another Ukraine, but one in which the US is trapped into expending military and economic assets while Russia and China drag out the costs.

In my June 2025 article, “The Iran Trap: Everyone Wants Americans To Fight Their Wars For Them”, I predicted:

“Iran will receive ample weaponry and intel from Russian sources, prolonging the conflict….”

The Kremlin has essentially admitted that this is already happening. Iran has shown uncharacteristic precision with some missile strikes exactly because they have access to Russian satellite intel and targeting. The Russians could very well be running Iran’s strategic operations, for all we know. I also argued that:

“On the political front there will be a deep divide between pro-Israel conservatives and anti-war conservatives. Trump will lose a large percentage of his base if the US deploys troops. Americans might hate leftists enough that this won’t matter in 2026, but they’re not going to give Neo-Cons a free pass, either.”

In other words, one of the biggest disasters that could happen for the US as a result of this war is that ideologically deranged Democrats and leftists regain enough political leverage post-midterms to disrupt any practical reforms and eventually bring back the woke nightmare we witnessed under the Biden Administration. If this happens, mass violent unrest in America is inevitable. Not to mention, war with Russia in Ukraine will be back on the table.

For large swaths of Asia, the disaster will be immediately visceral, including economic implosion, rationing and probably civil unrest. And, thanks to globalism, economic crisis in Asia has the ability to spread into western economies.

The BRIC nations have lost much of their leverage over the US Dollar that they had 10 years ago (China’s dollar and treasury holdings have been cut in half and exports from China to the US have dropped significantly), but they can still engage in enough economic warfare through trade disruptions to wreak havoc on US markets.

As I mentioned in recent articles, any disruption to the Yen-Carry trade is perhaps the biggest threat to the US economy right now, and this could be triggered through high energy prices in Japan; not as an attack, but as a basic consequence of market interdependency. All of this depends on the true objectives behind US operations in Iran.

Is the goal an occupation and complete regime change? Well, this is clearly what the Neo-Cons and Israel want. That kind of project could take years to complete and it would require a maximum US ground commitment. However, if Trump intended to pursue an occupation I think he would have committed tens of thousands of troops on day one.

Is the goal to simply destroy the Iranian ability to project military power outside of their country, or take control of the Strait of Hormuz? Walking away is not an option at this stage (the Hormuz cannot be left in the hands of the Iranians without leverage against them). So, this would be the easiest objective to complete with minimal US ground operations, bringing us to our best case scenario…

The Key To Ending The Iran War In Five Weeks

We constantly hear about international exposure to the Hormuz shutdown, but the media rarely mentions that Iran is the MOST exposed economy of all. For now, Iranian oil ships continue to pass through the strait and these vessels are Iran’s economic lifeline. Strategic estimates suggest that without the steady passage of these oil tankers, the Iranian economy would completely collapse within five weeks.

In fact, there is already information leaking out from Iran which suggests that an economic crash is happening right now. This will accelerate the Islamic regime’s willingness to negotiate.

If they don’t, Trump’s strategy will be a ground invasion of Kharg Island along with several other Islands that Iran uses to help secure the Hormuz. Kharg Island handles approximately 96% of Iran’s crude oil exports, making it the single greatest weakness of the regime.

But what if Kharg represents too much risk? The American public abhors even minimal military casualties, which is why we are politically ill equipped to weather a long term war. There is another way, and it’s much safer…

Iranian cargo ships can be targeted for seizure by a US blockade of the Persian Gulf well away from the narrow waters of the Hormuz. The ships could be destroyed, but I suspect the Department of Defense will try to avoid oil spills and ecological disasters. Instead, the best option is to capture Iran’s tankers and then redirect the oil to countries in danger of shortages. Iran has the option of shutting off GPS tracking for their vessels (shadow fleet), but this would not help them maneuver past a comprehensive US blockade.

In other words, I argue that the US could turn the tables on Iran and use their reliance on the Hormuz against them. With Iran’s economy in shambles, they will no longer be able to purchase missiles or drones for resupply from Russia and China. They won’t be able to pay for logistic resources for their military and they won’t be able to contain public unrest.

The Iranians would be forced to negotiate and the war would be over quickly with minimal risk to US troops. It’s the only option I see for returning energy markets to normal operations within a couple months while preventing a global crisis. Trump should treat any calls for long term ground occupation with suspicion; there is no need for this kind of military commitment. The war can be decided quickly through economic means.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 23:30

White House Intervenes After Israel Closed Church Of The Holy Sepulchre Ahead Of Easter

Jerusalem's Church of the Holy Sepulchre was closed by Israeli authorities earlier this month after Iranian missile fragments hit Jerusalem, with restrictions also being placed on who can enter the walled old city - home to all of the most sacred religious sites.

This has resulted in outrage among Christians, however, Israeli officials have said that Al Aqsa Mosque was also closed, and limitations were placed numbers of people visiting the Western Wall - and claimed that all of this was being done as a safety precaution.

Source: BiblePlaces.com

But closure of the Holy Sepulchre for Lent and Easter is basically unprecedented in recent history, and Church leaders say it violates the church's historic autonomy under an arrangement called the 'status quo'.

Things have come to a head after on Palm Sunday, two Catholic leaders were prevented from praying at the Holy Sepulchre by Israeli police. The Vatican was quick to rebuke the police decision as "a manifestly unreasonable and grossly disproportionate measure."

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa was the top official kept from entering the church, and his name has previously been in the news over the course of the Gaza war, where he called out Israel's military for shelling Christian sites, including a couple of deadly airstrikes on Palestinian churches.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Trump White House has gotten involved, exerting some rare direct pressure on the Israeli government over the church closure.

"We did express our concerns with Israel with respect to these holy sites being shut down," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says during a briefing - as cited in Israeli press reports.

"We want worshipers to be able to access these holy sites. Of course, safety is a top priority, but we understand Israel is working on the security measures to reopen the sites throughout Holy Week, and that’s something that we’re appreciative of," she added.

It seems the White House intervention may have worked, with Times of Israel reporting that "Catholic officials in Jerusalem announced that prayer arrangements for Holy Week, which culminates with Easter on Sunday, April 5, had been resolved with Israeli authorities, ending a diplomatic spat over the issue."

The majority local church in the Holy Land, among Palestinians and Greeks, is the Orthodox Church of Jerusalem - part of the worldwide Eastern Orthodox communion. There are typically large throngs of Orthodox Christians descending on Jerusalem during this period. While the Western confessions - or rather the Roman Catholic and Protestant churches - will celebrate Easter on April 5, Orthodox Easter, also known as Pascha, takes place on April 16 this year. 

JERUSALEM — Israeli authorities announced on March 29, 2026, a special plan allowing Christian leaders to resume services at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, following international backlash over the obstruction of Catholic clergy on Palm Sunday.

The decision by the office of… pic.twitter.com/iW0G6ZgtuX

— UOJ - America (@UOJ_America) March 30, 2026

It's as yet unclear the degree to which Israeli police and military will actually allow Christians to access the Church of the Holy Sephulchre before and during these dates. And the reality is that it is unlikely that the crowds will be huge or overwhelming this year, given the ongoing war and current difficulty of travel in the region.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 22:40

Zelensky Calls For Easter Truce Amid Nightly Russian Drone Assaults

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is urging for an Easter holiday ceasefire with Russia, at a moment each side has sent daily and nightly drones and missiles across the border.

"We’re ready for a ceasefire during the Easter holidays," Zelensky told reporters, describing that "normal people who respect life" would seek a permanent ceasefire. "But we’re ready for any compromises, except those involving our dignity and sovereignty," he added.

The vast majority of both the Russian & Ukrainian populations are Orthodox Christians.

Both countries have predominantly Eastern Orthodox Christian populations, and Orthodox Easter, also known as Pascha, takes place on April 16 this year. The West, or rather the Roman Catholic and Protestant churches, will celebrate on April 5.

While full ceasefires, even short ones, have not had much success in the past more than four years of war, the two sides have previously agreed to days or even weeks of pauses on attacking energy sites. This limited truce does hold some potential.

"If Russia is ready to stop hitting Ukrainian energy facilities, we will not respond against their energy sector," Zelensky said.

Last year saw an effort to put in place a Pascha ceasefire, called for by President Putin - however, there were widespread accusations of violations.

Putin himself attends the long Orthodox Pascha vigil each year, while Zelensky is Jewish. He became the first Jewish president of Ukraine after being elected in 2019, and has since faced accusations of persecuting Ukrainian Orthodox who maintain spiritual ties with the Moscow patriarchate. 

Currently, drone attacks on mutual energy sites are continuing at rapid pace. We detailed that last week Russia set a record for the largest single-day drone assault on Ukraine of the war.

At least seven people were killed in Ukraine last Tuesday after Russia launched the truly massive drone. Counting both drones and cruise missiles, 979 warheads poured into Ukrainian airspace as diplomatic efforts at ending the war remain stalled and the world's attention focused almost entirely on the US-Israeli war on Iran.  

If some kind of Easter truce could actually hold later next month, it would constitute a significant breakthrough regarding broader diplomatic efforts toward peace, at a moment the US-mediated talks have stalled amid the Iran war in the Middle East, and removal of some sanctions on Russian oil.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 21:50

US Firm Boosts Production Of Precision Anti-Drone Systems

Authored by Prabhat Ranjan Mishra via Interesting Engineering,

A Florida-based company is accelerating production of powerful systems that can counter small drone threats. VAMPIRE counter-unmanned systems (C-UxS) deliver precision strike capabilities against drones.

The system has proved its efficacy on the frontline.

Developed by L3Harris Technologies, the system is a self-contained platform that delivers advanced reconnaissance and can conduct operations against remotely piloted aircraft.

VAMPIRE counter-unmanned system installed on vehicle

L3Harris Technologies recently installed its VAMPIRE counter-unmanned system aboard a GM Defense Infantry Squad Vehicle (ISV), demonstrating a mobile solution to take out drone threats. 

The facility features a flexible assembly, testing and installation area to integrate VAMPIRE onto ground vehicles and containerized weapon systems. The production line can adjust and increase volume as demand evolves.

“Deploying VAMPIRE on GM Defense’s ISV is a great example of how quickly and seamlessly this system can be used by our Army customer to defeat the rapidly growing threat of small, hostile drones,” said Tom Kirkland, vice president and general manager, Targeting and Sensor Systems, L3Harris.

“Working together, we have swiftly responded to the urgent need to defeat small unmanned autonomous systems accurately and affordably while allowing ground forces to stay tactically mobile.”

Highly adaptable to meet diverse mission

The company claims that the GM Defense ISV is uniquely engineered to fulfill U.S. Army requirements for rapid deployment. With robust off-road capabilities, the ISV significantly improves tactical mobility across a range of military operations. The vehicle is easily maintainable and highly adaptable to meet diverse mission and operational needs, according to a press release.

GM Defense partners with companies like L3Harris to design and produce diverse kits to support the broad range of mission requirements for a variety of general purpose and special operations forces. Incorporating a Counter-small UAS system like VAMPIRE adds new capability to protect operators from hostile drone attacks, as per the release.

“The versatility of the ISV is one of its core strengths, and integrating a critical counter-UAS capability like VAMPIRE showcases our ability to rapidly adapt the vehicle to meet evolving threats,” said John ‘JD’ Johnson, Vice President of Government Solutions and Strategy, GM Defense.

“This successful integration highlights how the ISV’s modular design and commercial-based architecture can quickly incorporate next-generation technologies to deliver immediate value and enhanced protection to our warfighters.”

The company also highlighted that the completely self-contained, low-cost, multi-mission, precision-guided weapons platform effectively engaged in combat operations since 2023, safeguarding personnel and critical infrastructure against hostile unmanned systems and ground threats.

The affordable, compact ISR and counter-unmanned weapons system designed to deploy on nearly any platform, vehicle or vessel, according to L3 Harris. This all-in-one system excels in Counter-small Unmanned Airborne System (C-sUAS) operations, delivering precision strike capabilities with customizable sensors and weapons, significantly reducing the cost-per-effect and overall cost of ownership, according to the company.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 21:25

'Project Hail Mary' Writer Credits Not Going Woke For Film's Success

With an $80.6 million domestic opening weekend, a 95% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes, and a 96% audience score, Project Hail Mary is an undeniable blockbuster hit. By its second weekend, the movie crossed $300 million worldwide and dethroned Avatar: Fire and Ash as the top-grossing Hollywood film of 2026 in North America. It’s become the second-biggest non-franchise opening over the past decade, after Oppenheimer.

The Hollywood Reporter published a piece titled "Project Hail Mary: 4 Lessons Hollywood Won't Learn From Its Success," pointing to smart storytelling, sincerity, patience, and practical effects as the pillars behind the film's blockbuster performance. That's a solid four. But, it predictably missed the fifth, and arguably most important point: Don't go woke.

In the movie, Ryan Gosling plays Ryland Grace, a science teacher and biologist who wakes up alone on a deep-space mission to figure out how to stop a microorganism from dimming the sun. He eventually makes contact with an alien on the same mission, and the two team up to save their respective worlds from extinction. The premise could have easily become a vehicle for climate allegory and geopolitical moralizing, but it didn't.

Andy Weir, the author of the novel, sat down with Will Jordan - better known online as The Critical Drinker - on Jordan's YouTube channel shortly after the film's release. 

"For me, it's a great example of what you can do now with movies," Jordan said. "If you're faithful to the source material and you don't insult the intelligence of your audience, and give them something really interesting to grapple with, and you know, dare I say it, [don’t] try and shove, like, crappy identity politics into it, you end up with a goddam good movie at the end of it that the people just want to watch."

Weir's response was immediate and unambiguous. "I think you and me are kind of on the same wavelength there when it comes to fiction writing," he said. "I never put any politics or messaging in any of my stories at all. There's no deeper meaning; there isn't even any symbolism, even non-political. There's just no symbolism at all. My books are just purely to entertain."

Weir added. "You don't have to worry about the message." 

This is why Andy Weir will always be one of my favorite authors. His goal is to entertain, not lecture. pic.twitter.com/5KmvOvf8c4

— Lily* (@300mirrors) March 24, 2026

That's a best-selling author of two major Hollywood adaptations - The Martian and now Project Hail Mary - telling an audience of millions that the secret ingredient is the absence of an agenda. Not diversity hires. Not carefully calibrated representation metrics. Not a third-act monologue about social justice. Just a story, told well, about humans trying to survive.

The contrast with HBO Max's upcoming Harry Potter series couldn't be clearer. Last week, the teaser trailer for the first season dropped, and the internet promptly caught fire over the casting of Paapa Essiedu - a black actor - as Severus Snape. The show had been pitched as a more faithful adaptation of J.K. Rowling's novels than the original eight films were able to be. But upon the announcement of Essiedu’s casting, fans quickly pointed to original illustrations and decades of book descriptions of Snape, and realized this was not going to be a faithful adaptation of the novels.

Following the release of the trailer, social media has been flooded with "Black Snape" memes, AI-generated edits, and videos, many lamenting how certain Harry Potter storylines and character dynamics will land differently because of the race swap. The conversation about the new series has become almost entirely about casting politics and DEI, rather than storytelling.

That's exactly what Project Hail Mary avoided. Directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller, and a production that respected its source material, delivered a film people actually wanted to see.

Hollywood has a template now. It's not complicated. Serve the audience, not the agenda. The question isn't whether the lesson is available. It's whether Hollywood is willing to hear it.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 21:00

China's Breakthrough Lithium Battery Could Double EV Range To 600+ Miles, Survive -94°F Temp

Authored by Bojan Stojkovski via Interesting Engineering,

A team of researchers in China has unveiled an all-weather electrolyte designed to boost the performance of lithium batteries across a wide range of conditions. Scientists based in Shanghai and Tianjin report that batteries built with the new hydrofluorocarbon-based electrolyte delivered more than twice the energy density of conventional designs when tested at room temperature. 

Fluorine-based electrolyte could improve EV and drone battery efficiency.

Beyond efficiency gains, the team says the chemistry remains stable in extreme environments, with batteries continuing to operate effectively at temperatures as low as minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit. 

The development points to a potential path for longer-lasting, more resilient batteries suited for EVs and other demanding applications, where both energy density and reliability under stress are critical.

Batteries can store up to three times more energy

In a study published last month in the journal Nature, researchers outlined how hydrofluorocarbon-based electrolytes could help overcome long-standing limits in battery power and energy density. 

The team found that, for the same battery mass, energy storage capacity at room temperature could increase by two to three times compared to conventional designs. In turn, this suggests a  viable route toward significantly more efficient lithium batteries, with implications for EVs, grid storage, and other high-demand applications, the South China Morning Post reported.

The advance could significantly extend electric vehicle range, potentially increasing it from roughly 310–370 miles to about 620 miles on a single charge, the scientists noted. Beyond EVs, the technology may also enhance the performance of devices such as smartphones, drones, robots, and even spacecraft, particularly in extremely cold environments where conventional batteries tend to struggle.

At the core of any battery is the electrolyte, a chemical medium that allows ions to move between the positive and negative electrodes. For decades, most lithium battery electrolytes have relied on oxygen- and nitrogen-based compounds because they effectively dissolve lithium salts. However, these materials have limits – they don’t transfer charge as efficiently under stress, which can slow down charging, reduce performance in cold conditions, and in some cases, raise safety concerns.

New electrolyte powers lithium-metal cells in extreme temperatures

The team, part of Nankai University and the Shanghai Institute of Space Power-Sources (SISP) under the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, developed fluorine-based electrolytes for lithium-metal batteries that offer lower viscosity, improved stability, and enhanced performance in cold conditions. 

Using one of their hydrogen-, fluorine-, and carbon-based electrolytes, the researchers produced lithium-metal pouch cells with an energy density exceeding 700 Wh per pound at room temperature and around 400 Wh per pound at minus 58 °F.

By comparison, conventional lithium batteries reach about 136 Wh per pound at room temperature, dropping to roughly 68 Wh per pound at minus 4 °F. The researchers reported that even at minus 94 °F, their fluorine-based electrolyte maintained high efficiency and stable charge-discharge cycles.

Even with strong performance at both room and extremely low temperatures, the team noted that the electrolyte’s high-temperature stability still needs improvement. Raising the boiling point of the electrolytes could open the door to true all-climate applications, making the technology viable across a wider range of environments.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 20:35

Even Erik Prince Warns Iran Will "Burn It Down" - Boots On The Ground Could Mean "Burning American Warships"

Even Erik Prince is warning the Trump administration to exercise extreme caution in Iran - particularly when it comes to boots on the ground.

The founder of Blackwater, whose private military contractors became synonymous with the U.S. quagmire in Iraq, is pushing back hard on current U.S. strategy toward Iran. Prince issued a sobering warning at CPAC last week. Speaking on the “Breaking Stuff and Killing Bad Guys” panel, Prince expressed deep skepticism about the current trajectory of U.S. involvement in Iran:

“I don’t share the optimism of the administration that there’s going to be a peaceful stop to this. They will burn it down.”

He then highlighted the particular dangers of committing ground forces:

“And my real concern is that if they try to put boots on the ground and force the Strait of Hormuz, you will see imagery of burning American warships in the next couple of weeks. And I don’t think people are really prepared for that.”

Prince is “extremely concerned” about the escalation and noted that Iran’s leadership has been preparing for conflict with the U.S. for decades.

Echoes of Earlier Warnings

Prince cautioned strongly against any US ground commitment nearly a month ago in a March 1 appearance on Steve Bannon’s War Room.

“Don’t ever contemplate ground troops in Iran," he said. “I don’t think a regime has ever been changed by air power alone. It’s wishful thinking.”

Erik Prince's Advice To President Trump: "Don't Ever Contemplate Ground Troops In Iran" @realErikDPrince pic.twitter.com/uSGgQJOBNp

— Bannon’s WarRoom (@Bannons_WarRoom) March 1, 2026

He was equally skeptical of relying on airpower for regime change:

“Airpower alone is not going to get that done.”

ERIK PRINCE: If there are negotiations with the mullahs for some kind of transition, give them the city of Mashhad almost like a Vatican where they can go and be super Islamic and strict while the rest of Iran breathes free.

Ultimately, it's the Iranian people's opportunity to… pic.twitter.com/9JqkM5IGo2

— Bannon’s WarRoom (@Bannons_WarRoom) March 2, 2026

The Kharg Island and Strait of Hormuz

Prince’s warnings arrive as discussions continue in Washington about Iran's critical oil infrastructure, including Kharg Island (which handles the vast majority of Iran’s crude exports) and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Prince described a potential airborne assault on Kharg Island as “mighty thin” and “pretty sporty” due to dense missile defenses and Iran’s effective use of FPV drones down to the squad level.

At CPAC, he reinforced that Iran is no easy target and would respond aggressively to any attempt to seize or blockade key maritime chokepoints.

*  *  * STOCK UP AT A DISCOUNT

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 20:10

Biden-Appointed Judge Tosses DOJ Lawsuit Challenging Minnesota's In-State Tuition For Illegal Immigrants

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

A district court judge tossed out the Trump administration’s lawsuit on March 27 against Minnesota laws that allow illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition rates, or in some cases waive tuition, for college and university classes, ruling that the state law doesn’t violate federal law.

United States District Judge Katherine Menendez, appointed in 2021 by President Biden, granted the state’s motion to dismiss the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) lawsuit, filed on June 25, 2025, finding Minnesota’s in-state tuition rules didn’t discriminate against citizens.

“As Defendants point out, there are multiple ways a student could qualify for Resident Tuition without residing in Minnesota, such as attending a Minnesota high school while living in a neighboring state, or by attending a Minnesota high school while living in a neighboring state, or by attending a Minnesota boarding school,” Menendez wrote in the decision.

The federal government sued Minnesota’s Gov. Tim Walz and other state officials over the state’s laws that allow foreign nationals to receive lower or free tuition for college.

Minnesota law states that any student, other than a non-immigrant alien, can qualify for a resident tuition rate at state universities and colleges if they attend high school in the state for at least three years and graduate from a state high school or get a high school equivalent degree.

The law also states an illegal immigrant must give the state proof they have complied with federal selective service registration requirements, filed to obtain lawful immigration status, and provide documents showing they have tried to get lawful immigration status to qualify for in-state tuition.

Menendez also agreed with Walz and Minnesota’s Attorney General Keith Ellison, who argued they should not have been included in the lawsuit by the DOJ because “none of the Minnesota statutes mention either official, and nowhere in the Complaint does the United States allege specific actions of involvement by either official.”

The judge dismissed the case with prejudice, meaning it stands as the final judgment and can’t be refiled.

Students paying in-state tuition pay half the cost of those paying out-of-state tuition. For the 2024–2025 school year, the average out-of-state tuition in Minnesota was $26,700, while in-state tuition was about $12,900, according to the Federation for American Immigration Reform.

In addition to the in-state tuition law, Minnesota passed the North Star Promise Program, signed by Walz in 2023, which gives illegal immigrants who attend high school for three years in the state the ability to qualify for free tuition, scholarships, grants, and stipends if their families make less than $80,000.

The DOJ’s lawsuit concerned the interpretation of federal immigration law that limits eligibility and preferential treatment of immigrants not lawfully present in the United States.

The law states immigrants who are not lawfully present in the country “shall not be eligible on the basis of residence within a state for any postsecondary education benefit unless a citizen or national of the United States is eligible for such a benefit without regard to whether the citizen or national is such a resident.”

In the lawsuit, the DOJ alleged the state’s policy to provide reduced and free tuition for illegal immigrants unlawfully discriminated against U.S. citizens.

The Diana E. Murphy U.S. Courthouse in Minneapolis on June 13, 2024. Michael Goldberg/AP Photo

“No state can be allowed to treat Americans like second-class citizens in their own country by offering financial benefits to illegal aliens,” U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi said at the time of the lawsuit filing.

Federal law prohibits higher-learning institutions from providing postsecondary education benefits to immigrants that are not offered to U.S. citizens, according to the DOJ.

The DOJ, Walz, and Ellison’s offices did not immediately return requests for comment about the decision.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 19:45

China's EV Giant BYD Misses Earnings, Enters Brutal New Phase Of Competition

BYD is entering a tougher phase after releasing weaker-than-expected financial results and signaling growing pressure in China’s electric vehicle market, according to Bloomberg. Chairman Wang Chuanfu described the current environment as having “reached a fever pitch, and is undergoing a brutal ‘knockout stage.’”

The company’s stock fell at the opening of trading in Hong Kong, reflecting investor concerns. Its latest quarterly results showed a sharp drop in profitability, with earnings and revenue both missing forecasts. This downturn followed a challenging year overall, marked by declining annual profits despite BYD maintaining strong global sales and even surpassing Tesla in volume.

At home, the company is losing momentum. Demand in China has softened, and competition—especially from newer, technology-driven entrants like Xiaomi—is intensifying. Although revenue still grew slightly over the past year, profit margins narrowed and overall earnings declined, pointing to rising costs and pricing pressure.

The beginning of 2026 has not reversed this trend. Domestic sales have continued to weaken, and BYD has been overtaken by Geely in the Chinese market. To offset this, the company is focusing more on international expansion, where demand remains stronger and profit per vehicle is higher. Its goal of selling over a million cars abroad highlights how critical overseas markets have become, even though building factories outside China requires significant investment.

Bloomberg writes that financial pressures are also increasing. Analysts suggest that BYD’s domestic car business could soon become unprofitable, leaving exports as the primary source of earnings. While higher oil prices may temporarily push more consumers toward EVs, sustained growth will depend on improving charging infrastructure and broader industry support.

Some of BYD’s difficulties are tied to its own strategic choices. Its “God’s Eye” driver-assistance system, once promoted as a major competitive advantage, has drawn complaints from users. The company had aimed to make this advanced feature standard across its lineup, but the rollout has exposed technical shortcomings and the risks of scaling new technology too quickly.

In response, BYD appears to be adjusting its priorities. Instead of emphasizing advanced software features, it is shifting toward practical improvements like battery efficiency and faster charging. Its latest battery technology can recharge from 10% to 70% in just minutes, signaling a move toward solving real-world concerns such as range and convenience rather than focusing solely on high-tech driving capabilities.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 19:20

An Aspirational Tech Right–Populist Right Alliance

Authored by Nate Fischer via American Intelligence,

The relationship between the tech right and the populist right is a central question of our day.

After an initial alliance in the lead-up to the 2024 campaign, fissures quickly appeared. The first prominent one was the Christmas H-1B fight. Others followed, both in and out of the administration. In many ways, the divide has been growing -- with Bannon leading tech critiques, and Republican politicians like DeSantis staking out tech-skeptical stances. Trump has managed to keep things together, but the future is unclear.

I believe an alliance is necessary both for America's success and for the right to have the power to dislodge the entrenched establishment left.

The simplest approach would be a pragmatic alliance of necessity -- both factions push distinct priorities, and compromise where necessary to form a political coalition.

But I think we should aim for more — for an alliance between the tech right and the populist (or cultural) right that gives each group a crucial, or even heroic, role in a shared vision for America. I believe such a vision can center on (1) an appreciation for the conditions — and the people — that ultimately drive tech-enabled prosperity, and (2) an appreciation for how disruptive technology can structurally favor right-aligned constituencies and address central priorities of the cultural right.

Populists need tech:

The populist right needs tech. It may not need specific tech elites, or even anywhere close to a majority of current Silicon Valley figures, but it needs a positive vision for technology and it needs people who can master technology. Two factors drive this:

First, Americans have always been favorably inclined to technology. I believe if the parties split on technology, the pro-tech party will have a significant structural advantage with the electorate. This inclination is not new: In 1840, Tocqueville noted how Americans happily built ships that would last only a few years because of their enthusiasm for new innovations that would quickly obsolesce them. In the mid-to-late nineteenth century, Americans broadly embraced the power of technologies from the revolver to the railroad to conquer and settle the West. And America's embrace of technology was certainly apparent in the broad popularity of the tech industry for much of the last half-century. It's possible a tech-skeptical party can succeed in other countries, but I suspect that in America any party capable of real wins must present a positive vision for the use and mastery of technology.

Second, whether we like it or not, technology will shape the future. This has always been true to varying extents; people and groups who mastered major new technologies usually gained outsized influence, and often came to rule new regimes. In the case of major transitions like the shift to the digital age, the stakes are particularly high. Opposing technologies like AI may be a little like opposing gunpowder in the fifteenth century: many may not have liked its impact on the world, but the world was shaped by those who mastered it.

Tech needs populists:

The tech right also needs populist support. Entrenched legacy leftist interest groups retain tremendous power, and without strong opposition, will simultaneously try to stifle new technologies and squeeze technologists for the money needed to fund their ever-more-bloated programs. Populists represent large factions deeply skeptical of this legacy regime, and are capable of bringing tremendous political energy to any opposing coalition.

A populist right aligns with tech on more than just opposition to legacy elites. Right-leaning Americans are among the only people on earth broadly supportive of the free market policies and rule of law that allow Silicon Valley to thrive. While populism can create tensions with free-market and rule-of-law idealists, the broad populist right goal of cultural preservation includes restoration of the conditions necessary to preserve these norms.

Deeper alignment:

Finally, I believe the tech right and populist right need each other — not just to politically partner against common enemies, but to achieve the technological dynamism technologists pursue, and the restored status and opportunity populists seek.

This symbiosis reflects the particular character of the American people in a time of technological disruption: Americans are uniquely suited to mastering technology.

Americans are good for tech innovators--multiplying the impact of new technologies by acting not just as consumers but as creative and productive users of technology. This is not limited to a few exceptional entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley; rather, millions of Americans in companies across the country have a particular drive (relative to many other cultures globally) to find new sources of leverage and better ways to do things. These are the people who jump on new technologies that can solve such problems, embracing the change this entails. A country of such people is a country ripe for innovations that would find far smaller markets in more conservative or less resourceful societies. This particular character opens the aperture for technological innovation, and plays a key role in America's technological dynamism.

By the same token, technologists can be good for the American people. While many tech innovations theoretically spread rapidly around the globe, in practice, Americans will often be the biggest beneficiaries of them because of this particular facility with technology--advancing the relative position of the American people in a time of global and cultural competition. This is especially true for core constituencies of the populist right, such as independent executives and skilled physical-world workers, who stand to benefit from technologies like AI – in contrast with core opposing constituencies like bureaucrats, who are ripe for replacement with AI.

Call to action:

Thus, the tech right should champion not just the free markets widely recognized as enabling Silicon Valley's success, but also the people and culture that make America such a fertile place for technological innovation and development. Practically this means embracing both product and policy decisions that strengthen rather than undermine this culture. This means building products that solve critical problems and serve as platforms for broader productive application, and avoiding products that contribute to vice or addiction. And it means supporting immigration and trade policies that first and foremost strengthen the American people, rather than optimizing for those that serve the most immediate desires of tech companies.

The populist right should embrace technological innovation. This means encouraging Americans at all levels to master new technologies, recognizing the potential of such technologies to advance America's position versus geopolitical rivals and the position of core populist right constituencies domestically. And it means politically supporting tech leaders who accept their responsibility to the American people – supporting policies that allow continued innovation, and protecting successful innovators from the confiscatory efforts of the left.

The alliance I propose is aspirational: Today, many in Silicon Valley – even many who would see themselves on the right – have little regard for the priorities of the populist or cultural right. And many populists more easily see the immediate threats that social media poses to families and that AI poses to jobs, and they remember with distrust the degree to which tech companies embraced censorship and deplatforming. But I believe the need for political alliance is clear, and the potential alignment toward a shared vision far deeper than many recognize. One of the great opportunities for statesmanship in coming years is the forging of such an alliance.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 18:55