Individual Economists

Escobar: The Long And Winding Petro-Gold Road

Zero Hedge -

Escobar: The Long And Winding Petro-Gold Road

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

The 15-point plan that Team Trump presented to Iran is already D.O.A.

It’s an imposed capitulation: a surrender document disguised as “negotiation”.

The non-plan plan – imposing demands while begging for a one-month ceasefire – includes zero uranium enrichment on Iranian soil; full dismantlement of Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow installations; all enriched uranium out of Iran; the missile program extremely restricted; no funding for Hezbollah, Ansarallah and Iraqi militias; the Strait of Hormuz totally opened.

All that in exchange for a vague “cancelling the threat of reimposing sanctions”.

The only realistic Iranian response to this accumulated wishful thinking might be Mr. Khorramshahr-4 showering his business card across selected targets – consistent with leveraging economic and military deterrence to dictate the real terms.

And the real terms are harsh:

Closure of ALL US military bases in the Gulf; guarantee of no more wars; end of the war on Hezbollah; lifting of ALL sanctions; war damage reparations; a new order in the Strait of Hormuz (already in effect: collecting fees just like Egypt in Suez); missile program intact.

Conclusion: the infernal escalation machine keeps rolling.

A Member’s Club With an Entrance Fee in Petroyuan

Meanwhile, oil and gas prices are mired in a kaleidoscope of volatility, affecting currencies, equities, commodities, supply chains, inflation scares. This is already an out-of-control global economic shock with devastating consequences in progress.

Before the war, Iran was producing a little less of 1.1 million barrels of oil a day, sold at $65 a barrel with a $18 discount: thus, in practice only $47. Now, Iran has increased production to 1.5 million barrels a day, selling at $110 (and counting), mostly to China, with a maximum $4 discount.

And that does not even include petrochemical sales: on the up and up, and for an array of extra customers. To round it all up, all payments are conducted via alternative mechanisms. Which brings us to a startling fact: for all practical purposes, this is sanctions relief in effect.

Now for the Holy Grail in the war: the Strait of Hormuz. It is de facto open, but with a toll booth controlled by the IRGC.

A toll booth with a twist: veto power over the guest list. Like entering an exclusive private club.

To get the IRGC clearance, a tanker needs to pay the toll: $2 million per vessel.

This is how it works.

You contact an IRGC-linked broker. The broker relays to the IRGC the essential info: vessel ownership, national flag, cargo manifest, destination, crew list, and AIS transponder data.

The IRGC runs background checks. If you are not US-linked, not shipping any Israel-linked cargo, and your flag is not part of “aggressor states”, you’re in. Japan and South Korea, for instance, still have not been cleared.

Then you pay the toll. In cash – whatever currency you have – but preferably in yuan. Or in crypto.

It’s a complex mechanism. The IRGC uses multiple addresses; cross-chain bridges to other networks; over-the-counter desks in jurisdictions way beyond American reach; and integration with all sorts of yuan settlement channels.

After the toll is paid, the IRGC issues a VHF radio clearance – complete with a specific time window linked to a narrow 5-mile nautical corridor through Iranian territorial waters, between Qeshm and little Larak island, where the IRGC Navy can visually identify your vessel. You’re free to go. No need for an escort ship.

All of the above applies, for now, to tankers from China, India, Pakistan, Turkiye, Malaysia, Iraq, Bangladesh, Russia. Some don’t need to pay the full toll. Some get exemptions – on government-to-government basis (as in Sri Lanka and Thailand, both described as “friendly nations”). And some don’t pay anything.

So welcome to a member’s club with an entrance fee mostly in petroyuan. It took a single move from Iran to achieve what endless global summits could not: establishing an alternative settlement system – under fire, tested under supreme stress, and on top of it applied in the most consequential chokepoint on the planet.

Each toll paid in petroyuan bypasses the petrodollar, SWIFT and US sanctions – all in one go. The Iranian parliament will approve legislation institutionalizing the toll booth as “security compensation.” No one saw this coming – and so fast: legalized chokepoint monetization. Without firing a shot. This is what de-dollarization trade is really all about.

The problem is what is not transiting Hormuz: fertilizers. Over 49% of urea for export comes from the Persian Gulf. Ammonia needs natural gas; but Qatar declared Force Majeure after the Epstein Syndicate attack on South Pars and the Iranian counter-strikes. The IRGC is focused on oil because oil finances the tool booth and long term, is at the heart of the post-dollar energy settlement system, fully supported by the Russia-China strategic partnership.

So it’s no wonder the Empire of Chaos and Plunder has gone bonkers. In a flash, in three weeks, we have the petroyuan ruling over the – de facto privatized – most important naval connectivity corridor on the planet. So CENTCOM will go all out Terminator to demolish the tool booth, attempting everything from bombing IRGC installations along the coast and setting up naval escorts for allied tankers to a tsunami of sanctions on toll booth brokers.

What CENTCOM cannot bomb is the precedent of the petroyuan in effect. The whole Global South is watching and doing the math. The whole demented war is actually helping a new payment infrastructure to come to light. The war’s financial dimension is even more crucial than missile breakthroughs.

What Awaits the GCC

Qatar warned Trump 2.0, over and over again, that attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure would destroy Doha’s own energy infrastructure. That’s exactly what happened. Qatar’s energy minister al-Kaabi revealed that he warned the US Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, as well as executives at ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips day after day.

To no avail. Qatar ended up losing 17% of its LNG capacity: $20 billion in lost revenue, and as many as 5 years to fix it. Al-Kaabi: oil could hit $150 a barrel, and this war could “bring down the economies of the world.”

We reach absurdist territory when it’s clear that striking Iran’s South Pars generated less than zero strategic advantage. On the contrary: the counterpunch hit the Persian Gulf energy sector. Yet perversity actually rules. Who ultimately benefitted? American gas companies.

Iran is betting – and that is immensely ambitious – that the Gulf monarchies will eventually do the math. It’s as if Tehran is making it quite clear: if you learn to do business with us, we will let you continue to do your own business.

The new rules include everything from the GCC bypassing the petrodollar to getting rid of US data centers. And if the GCC wants a new security arrangement, better talk to China. All that while the GCC also has to learn how to deal with this oil shock permanently repricing the risk premium on their energy supply. Structural reset does not even begin to describe it.

As it stands, there’s only one certainty: the GCC will be instrumental in the international financial system implosion as it gets ready to pull at least $5 trillion out of the US market so they may be able to fund their survival.

The Long and Winding Petro-Gold Road

To sum it all up: after the attack on the South Pars gas field – the largest on the planet – and the toll booth in the Strait of Hormuz, it’s yuan-gold settlements, all across the spectrum, that are giving the Russia-China strategic partnership an upper hand unthinkable only a few weeks ago.

The strategic partnership is locking in no less than a new, rising global settlement mechanism, where petroyuan trades flow straight into physical gold.

As Russia sells massive volumes of oil and gas not touched by the war on its ally Iran, China as the top refiner buys Russian energy while at the same time trying to support its Southeast Asian partners outside of the US dollar.

Russia is converting yuan payments into physical gold at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Iran is accumulating yuan payments in Hormuz – boosting yuan oil contracts that are convertible to gold. And China is building overseas gold vaults and corridors. The new Primakov triangle, RIC (Russia-Iran-China) is in control via real physical energy and gold.

So this is the major take away of the Epstein Syndicate war on Iran. Russia-China reach the Holy Grail: energy dominance and a gold-backed yuan settlement that bypasses the petrodollar to Kingdom Come.

For all practical purposes, the architecture set up by the “indispensable nation” since the 1990s is showing structural cracks for everyone to see, with global markets updating every possible model variation in real time.

It’s as if the Persians had reinterpreted Sun Tzu, Clausewitz and Kutuzov (the conqueror of Napoleon) into a whole new hybrid. And as a bonus, accomplishing in only three weeks what years’ worth of summits could not.

The petrodollar is on the way out. Alternative payment systems are up and running. And the Global South is watching in real time how the Empire of Endless Bombing can be brought to a standstill by a decentralized war of attrition engineered by a sovereign nation with one-fiftieth of the imperial defense budget.

Multipolarity won’t be born by suits reading papers in executive rooms. Multipolarity will be born in the battlefield, under fire, against all odds.

You will see why it matters so much:

“Pointed threats, they bluff with scorn

Suicide remarks are torn

From the fool’s gold mouthpiece the hollow horn

Plays wasted words, proves to warn

That he not busy being born is busy dying”

Bob Dylan

It’s Alright, Ma (I’m Only Bleeding)

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 23:20

Trump Ready To Take US Arms For Ukraine & Divert Them To Middle East

Zero Hedge -

Trump Ready To Take US Arms For Ukraine & Divert Them To Middle East

The Iran war has been bad for Ukraine, and President Zelensky knows it. He's frequently been warning partners not to let the global focus on the latest Middle East war distract from supporting Kiev.

But President Trump himself made fresh remarks highlighting just this situation, signaling he's willing to reroute arms originally tied to Ukraine toward the Middle East theater against Iran, reinforcing the obvious and growing pivot in US priorities.

Pressed on reports that shipments were being redirected on Thursday, Trump shrugged it off as standard practice: "We do that all the time. We have a lot of munitions. Sometimes we take from one and use for another."

He added Washington is no longer directly supplying the Ukrainian government and armed forces, but is instead "selling" weapons to NATO states that then pass them along. This has for many months been the White House's stated plan.

According to The Washington Post, officials say the Pentagon is weighing whether to divert missile interceptors initially intended for NATO purchase for Ukraine and send them to the Middle East.

While a final decision hasn't been made, or has at least not been publicly declared, this would be reasonable given how much US bases in the region have struggled to intercept Iran's inbound missiles and drones.

On Friday Prince Sultan airbase in Saudi Arabia was hit, wounding at least a dozen US troops, with reports of several in serious condition. Expensive US Air Force planes were also hit.

Clearly the US needs more interceptors, and yet Ukraine has for months been raising the alarm over its need for more Patriots and other air defense systems. Russia's assault on Ukrainian cities has not waned, but has been consistent and devastating. 

In early March, Zelensky stated that "We understand that a long war–if it is long–and the intensity of the military actions will affect the amount of air defense we receive." He emphasized: "Everyone understands that, for us, this is a matter of life."

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 22:45

Israeli Forces Raise Flag Over Syrian Town In Latest Raid: 'Provocative Act'

Zero Hedge -

Israeli Forces Raise Flag Over Syrian Town In Latest Raid: 'Provocative Act'

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

Israeli military vehicles rolled into the town of Hadr in Syria’s Quneitra Governorate days ago and raised the Israeli flag over the town's entrance. Locals say they also closed all but one road leading into or out of the town, and established a checkpoint on that road as well.

Though Israel routinely raids Quneitra's towns and villages of late, raising the Israeli government's flag over a town is more provocative than what usually happens in these incidents, and like most of Israel’s military forays on Syrian soil, they've yet to issue a statement to even attempt to explain the purpose of the operation.

Illustrative via AFP

Hadr is a relatively small town of about 5,000 people along the frontier between Quneitra Governorate and the UNDOF demilitarized zone, a zone which has subsequently been occupied militarily by Israel. Some suburbs of Hadr extend into the demilitarized zone.

Israel also launched operations against multiple other villages in Quneitra earlier this week, including Saida al-Golan and Saida al-Hanout. They captured two young men who were herding sheep to the west of the village.

The troops also captured two village elders in Saida al-Golan, though the elders were ultimately released without incident. The fate of the shepherds remains uncertain, and again the IDF has not commented.

As for the flag-raising incident, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which the mainstream media had long relied on as its main anti-Assad source throughout the prior war, detailed the following of the "provocative act":

Al-Quneitra province: Israeli forces raised the Israeli flag at the entrance of Hadr Town in northern Al-Quneitra countryside [on Wednesday], raising local questions regarding the escalation in the area.

According to sources, these forces closed secondary roads leading to the town from the side of Al-Qanaif checkpoints, and only kept the main road leading to the town open.

This isn't the first time the Israeli flag has been spotted in these southern towns:

A day before these operations, Israeli troops stopped a wedding convoy near the town of Mashirfa, searching the wedding goers before firing shots in the air and scaring them off. No casualties or detentions were reported in this incident.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 22:10

6 Things To Know As Iran Conflict Hits 1-Month Mark

Zero Hedge -

6 Things To Know As Iran Conflict Hits 1-Month Mark

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

A month has passed since U.S. and Israeli forces jointly launched a surprise attack on Iran, delivering the opening blow in an ongoing effort the U.S. military has dubbed Operation Epic Fury.

Iranian forces have since retaliated with attacks on targets across the region and spooked international trade.

President Donald Trump has recently raised the prospect of a peace deal, but his administration is also preparing additional military options.

Here’s where things stand after four weeks of fighting.

Iranian Military, Intelligence, and Political Leaders Killed

The opening U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, on Feb. 28, included decapitation strikes aimed at killing numerous senior Iranian military and political leaders.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 86-year-old Shia Islamist cleric sitting at the pinnacle of leadership in the Iranian regime, was killed in those initial strikes.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the late ayatollah, has since replaced his father as the supreme leader of Iran. U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has said the younger Khamenei was likely disfigured in the strikes on the first day of the conflict, but the exact status of the new Iranian leader remains unclear.

A banner depicting the Iranian regime's new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, on March 11, 2026. Khoshiran/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

Other senior Iranian leaders killed on the opening day of the conflict included Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohammad Pakpour. Israel’s military reported a senior Iranian intelligence official named Saleh Asadi was also killed in the opening attacks, along with dozens of other senior Iranian military and intelligence leaders.

An Israeli strike killed Ali Larijani on March 17. Larijani was a senior security advisor to the late Khamenei and had previously served as a top international negotiator dealing with Iran’s nuclear program.

On March 26, Israeli forces killed Commodore Alireza Tangsiri, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s naval component.

Iran’s Forces Battered, Still Fighting

As of March 26, U.S. forces have reported striking more than 10,000 Iranian targets during Operation Epic Fury.

The Israeli military has reported several thousand more strikes on Iranian targets over the past month.

In addition to targeting top Iranian leaders, U.S. and Israeli forces have worked to destroy Iran’s offensive military capabilities.

A group of men inspects the ruins of a police station hit by an air strike in Tehran, Iran, on March 3, 2026. Vahid Salemi/AP

At a March 26 White House cabinet meeting, Hegseth said more than 150 Iranian vessels have been sunk. Those vessels include larger traditional warships as well as numerous smaller vessels capable of laying mines in key regional waterways, such as the Strait of Hormuz. 

The joint U.S. and Israeli operations have also sought to drive down the number of Iranian missile and drone attacks.

The Pentagon has said Iran’s missile and drone attacks are down around 90 percent from their peak. Officials have declined to specify how many missiles, drones, or launchers have been destroyed.

Meanwhile, countries around the region are dealing with dozens of drone and missile attacks each day.

Ongoing efforts are also focused on destroying Iran’s military industrial capacity.

A Pentagon official said U.S. operations have “damaged or destroyed over 66% of Iranian missile, drone, and naval production facilities and shipyards.”

Conflict Awakens Iranian Proxy Network

Tehran’s regional partners and proxies have rallied to their side since the start of Operation Epic Fury.

Fighting has intensified along the Israel-Lebanon border over the last month. There, Israeli forces have renewed skirmishes with Hezbollah, a designated terrorist group long considered an ally to Iran’s Shia Islamic leadership.

Israeli forces have reported dozens of strikes and ground raids targeting Hezbollah positions. Israel’s military has also confirmed several of its troops have been killed or wounded in the fighting.

Hezbollah has also launched rocket and drone attacks against Israel.

An Israeli self-propelled howitzer artillery gun fires rounds towards southern Lebanon from a position in the upper Galilee in northern Israel near the border on March 20, 2026. Lebanon was drawn into the Middle East war on March 2 when Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorists launched rockets at Israel after the killing of the Iranian regime's supreme leader. Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images

In Iraq, U.S. forces are fighting with Iranian-aligned militia groups that exist within Iraq’s state-sponsored Popular Mobilization Forces. At a March 19 Pentagon briefing, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine reported U.S. airstrikes targeting these Iranian-linked groups.

Yemen’s Houthi movement, another designated terrorist group aligned with Iran, has also threatened to resume attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea, as they did in the fall of 2023 and throughout 2024.

Rising Demands on US Forces

Weeks into the Iran conflict, the Pentagon dispatched two separate amphibious ready groups to the Middle East. Each group can consist of up to 5,000 U.S. sailors and Marines, including amphibious landing forces, fighter jets, and troop transport and attack helicopters.

More recently, the Pentagon also dispatched elements of the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, including the division’s 1st Brigade Combat Team.

A growing number of U.S. ground troops have been diverted to the region. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the recent troop deployments are just to provide contingency options.

Speaking with reporters as he arrived in France on March 27 for a G7 Foreign Affairs Ministerial meeting, Rubio said the United States is ahead of schedule on its military objectives in the Iran conflict and can complete them without needing ground troops.

“We can achieve all of our objectives without ground troops, but we are always going to be prepared to give the president maximum optionality,” Rubio said.

U.S. Marines with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit conduct a live fire deck shoot aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, in the Philippine Sea on March 16, 2026. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Gerardo Méndez

13 US Military Personnel Killed

Thirteen U.S. military personnel have been killed in operations against Iran since Feb. 28.

Of these, six U.S. soldiers were killed in a single drone strike on a tactical operations center at the Port of Shuaiba in Kuwait on March 1. Another six U.S. airmen were killed when their KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refueling aircraft crashed over western Iraq on March 12.

On March 27, around a dozen U.S. military personnel were injured at the Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia, a U.S. official familiar with the matter told The Epoch Times.

There have been more than 300 U.S. troops wounded in action, according to a U.S. Central Command spokesman. Of that number, 273 have returned to duty.

Three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets were shot down in an apparent friendly fire incident early in the conflict.

An F-35A Lightning II stealth fighter was damaged during combat operations over Iran on March 19.

A U.S. official has told The Epoch Times that 10 more unmanned U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones have been shot down in the conflict.

The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, which was dispatched to the region shortly before the conflict began, sustained fire damage on March 12. The carrier subsequently relocated to Greece to undergo maintenance and repairs.

Peace Talks Ongoing, US Leaders Say

At a U.S.-Saudi investment conference in Miami on March 27, Trump’s special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff said meetings on the Iran conflict are expected within the week, adding, “We’re certainly hopeful for it.”

Witkoff confirmed during a White House Cabinet meeting on March 26 that he has relayed a 15-point proposal to end the ongoing armed conflict with Iran.

“I can report to you today that we have, along with your foreign policy team, presented a 15-point action list that forms the framework for a peace deal,” Witkoff told Trump.

Witkoff declined to specify the terms of the U.S. proposal, which he said was relayed through Pakistani intermediaries.

Iranian officials, meanwhile, have downplayed any such talks.

In a statement shared by Iranian state media, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had received messages from Washington by way of intermediaries, but said, “this is not considered a negotiation.”

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi looks on after he delivered a speech during a session of the United Nations Conference on Disarmament, in Geneva, on Feb. 17, 2026. Valentin Flauraud/AFP via Getty Images

In recent days, Trump has highlighted progress in negotiations with Tehran to end the conflict.

“They say, ‘Oh, we’re not talking’ ... They are begging to work out a deal,” Trump said during the March 26 Cabinet meeting.

Trump also revealed that Iranian leaders had offered permission for 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz unharmed as a gesture of goodwill.

In a separate comment on Truth Social on March 26, Trump threatened worsening consequences for Tehran if a deal isn’t reached soon.

“They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is no turning back,” he wrote.

The push to negotiate an end to the fighting comes as Iranian attacks have targeted fuel facilities along the Persian Gulf, as well as commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz—through which around 25 percent of the world’s oceangoing oil and other global commodities pass.

Gas prices in the United States have risen by an average of $1 a gallon since the start of the conflict, as the fighting continues to threaten fuel markets.

Additional Middle East energy sites hang in the balance.

On March 21, Trump issued a 48-hour deadline for Iran to completely reopen the Strait of Hormuz or see its energy sites destroyed. Following Trump’s initial ultimatum, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to completely close down access to the Strait of Hormuz and target energy facilities in Middle Eastern countries that host U.S. forces. They also threatened to attack crucial water desalination facilities operated by those neighboring countries.

Trump has since postponed his strike deadline to April 6.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 21:00

US Monitoring Surge In China's Detention Of Panama-Flagged Vessels

Zero Hedge -

US Monitoring Surge In China's Detention Of Panama-Flagged Vessels

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Federal Maritime Commission on March 26 accused China of detaining Panama-flagged vessels in response to Panama’s termination of Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison’s concessions for two key ports.

Panama’s Supreme Court ruled in late January that the concessions held by Panama Ports Company, a unit of CK Hutchison, for the Balboa and Cristobal terminals in the Panama Canal were unconstitutional.

The ruling followed an audit by Panama’s comptroller, which alleged irregularities in the 25-year extension of the concession granted in 2021.

Following the ruling, Panama named U.S. subsidiaries Maersk APM Terminals and Mediterranean Shipping ​Company’s (MSC) Terminal Investment Limited as interim operators of the ports under 18-month contracts.

Laura DiBella, commissioner at the Federal Maritime Commission—an independent federal agency regulating the U.S. international ocean transportation system—said on March 26 that China has increasingly detained Panama-flagged vessels “under the guise of port state control” and the level of detentions was “far exceeding historical norms.”

“These intensified inspections were carried out under informal directives and appear intended to punish Panama after the transfer of Hutchison’s port assets,” DiBella said in a statement.

“Given that Panama‑flagged ships carry a meaningful share of U.S. containerized trade, these actions could result in significant commercial and strategic consequences to U.S. shipping.”

DiBella said that detaining or impeding vessels documented under U.S. law, as well as those from other nations engaged in commerce with the United States, are “inconsistent with the Commission’s mandate” to protect America’s global supply chain.

“The [Federal Maritime Commission] is charged with ensuring an efficient, competitive, and economical transportation system for the benefit of the United States,” she said.

The commissioner added that China’s Ministry of Transport has summoned Maersk and MSC to Beijing for high‑level discussions, but details had not been provided on the talks.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters on March 27 that the U.S. government had made “wrongful allegations” and accused Washington of trying to assert control over the Panama Canal.

CK Hutchison has denounced the ruling as unconstitutional and launched international arbitration proceedings against the Panamanian government, seeking more than $2 billion in damages, according to the Federal Maritime Commission.

“CKH considers the ruling, the executive decree, the purported termination of PPC’s concession, and the takeover of the terminals to be unlawful,” CK Hutchison said in a statement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 23.

The Panama Canal carries about 5 percent of worldwide maritime commerce, and U.S. President Donald Trump has sounded an alarm about the Chinese influence on the critical waterway that connects the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

CK Hutchison, which has ties to the Chinese Communist Party, has plans for a $23 billion sale of global ports, including the Panama assets, to a consortium led by BlackRock and MSC.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 19:50

Secret Service Agent Assigned To Jill Biden Shoots Himself In The Leg At Philadelphia Airport

Zero Hedge -

Secret Service Agent Assigned To Jill Biden Shoots Himself In The Leg At Philadelphia Airport

Perhaps incompetence is contagious...

A Secret Service agent tasked with protecting Jill Biden managed to become his own biggest threat, accidentally shooting himself in the leg at Philadelphia International Airport last week, according to Reuters.

Thankfully, Biden wasn’t anywhere nearby, presumably because the universe decided one crisis at a time was enough.

Photos: Daily Mail

The report says that the incident, politely labeled a “negligent discharge” (bureaucratic code for oh sh*t), happened in an unmarked car just before 9 a.m. Other officers rushed in to help, and the agent was taken to the hospital in stable condition—injured pride not listed but heavily implied.

"The Secret Service's Office of Professional Responsibility will be reviewing the facts and circumstances of this incident," Secret Service spokesman Nate Herring said, according to the Daily Mail. He continued: "We are grateful for our law enforcement and public safety partners who provided medical assistance."

Police surrounded a black Chevy Suburban outside Terminal C at Philadelphia International Airport amid ongoing security disruptions with some checkpoints closed and passengers rerouted through other terminals.

Good news: airport operations continued smoothly. And by that we mean likely with 12 hour waits at security due to lack of TSA agents.

Because nothing says “government has it all under control” in an airport nowadays like an armed professional shooting himself and everyone else just carrying on with their flights.

* * * COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 18:05

Secret Service Agent Assigned To Jill Biden Shoots Himself In The Leg At Philadelphia Airport

Zero Hedge -

Secret Service Agent Assigned To Jill Biden Shoots Himself In The Leg At Philadelphia Airport

Perhaps incompetence is contagious...

A Secret Service agent tasked with protecting Jill Biden managed to become his own biggest threat, accidentally shooting himself in the leg at Philadelphia International Airport last week, according to Reuters.

Thankfully, Biden wasn’t anywhere nearby, presumably because the universe decided one crisis at a time was enough.

Photos: Daily Mail

The report says that the incident, politely labeled a “negligent discharge” (bureaucratic code for oh sh*t), happened in an unmarked car just before 9 a.m. Other officers rushed in to help, and the agent was taken to the hospital in stable condition—injured pride not listed but heavily implied.

"The Secret Service's Office of Professional Responsibility will be reviewing the facts and circumstances of this incident," Secret Service spokesman Nate Herring said, according to the Daily Mail. He continued: "We are grateful for our law enforcement and public safety partners who provided medical assistance."

Police surrounded a black Chevy Suburban outside Terminal C at Philadelphia International Airport amid ongoing security disruptions with some checkpoints closed and passengers rerouted through other terminals.

Good news: airport operations continued smoothly. And by that we mean likely with 12 hour waits at security due to lack of TSA agents.

Because nothing says “government has it all under control” in an airport nowadays like an armed professional shooting himself and everyone else just carrying on with their flights.

* * * COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE

Speaking of meat that's been shot, order the Grass-Fed Steak Lover's Bundle!

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 18:05

Middle-Schoolers' "Let's Go Brandon" Sweatshirt Case Goes To Supreme Court

Zero Hedge -

Middle-Schoolers' "Let's Go Brandon" Sweatshirt Case Goes To Supreme Court

Authored by Dave Huber via The College Fix,

Lower courts have ruled school can ban wearing such apparel as ‘can reasonably be interpreted as profane’

The case of two Michigan middle-school brothers who were told to remove their hoodies emblazoned with the phrase “Let’s Go Brandon” is headed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The siblings are represented by the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression which says the boys’ school violated their First Amendment rights.

The phrase was popularized during a 2021 NASCAR event when a crowd was shouting “F*** Joe Biden!” but the NBC interviewer told racer Brandon Brown they were yelling “Let’s go Brandon!”

A judge in 2024 ruled the phrase could “reasonably be interpreted” as profane.

Last October, the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld that ruling in a 2-1 decision, confirming the case was about “the vulgarity exception.”

Referencing the landmark Tinker free speech case, Judge John Nalbandian (a Trump appointee) wrote “The Constitution doesn’t hamstring school administrators when they are trying to limit profanity and vulgarity in the classroom during school hours [… they’re not] powerless to prevent student speech that the administrators reasonably understand to be profane or vulgar.”

(Ironically, the brothers’ principal, Joseph Williams, had said he “was not aware that the school had experienced any disruption from students wearing ‘Let’s Go Brandon’” sweatshirts.)

FIRE’s petition to the SCOTUS notes the previous rulings allow individual teachers and administrators to “create and enforce their own test for ‘vulgarity’ [–] a political shirt could have First Amendment protection in second-period algebra but not third-period biology.”

“Let’s Go Brandon” is no different than using words “heck” or “shoot” in place of their obvious profane counterparts.

FIRE Supervising Senior Attorney Conor Fitzpatrick said “The school district’s censorship assumes that students cannot handle seeing even sanitized expressions. But America’s next generation is not so fragile, and the First Amendment is not so brittle.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 17:30

Middle-Schoolers' "Let's Go Brandon" Sweatshirt Case Goes To Supreme Court

Zero Hedge -

Middle-Schoolers' "Let's Go Brandon" Sweatshirt Case Goes To Supreme Court

Authored by Dave Huber via The College Fix,

Lower courts have ruled school can ban wearing such apparel as ‘can reasonably be interpreted as profane’

The case of two Michigan middle-school brothers who were told to remove their hoodies emblazoned with the phrase “Let’s Go Brandon” is headed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The siblings are represented by the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression which says the boys’ school violated their First Amendment rights.

The phrase was popularized during a 2021 NASCAR event when a crowd was shouting “F*** Joe Biden!” but the NBC interviewer told racer Brandon Brown they were yelling “Let’s go Brandon!”

A judge in 2024 ruled the phrase could “reasonably be interpreted” as profane.

Last October, the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld that ruling in a 2-1 decision, confirming the case was about “the vulgarity exception.”

Referencing the landmark Tinker free speech case, Judge John Nalbandian (a Trump appointee) wrote “The Constitution doesn’t hamstring school administrators when they are trying to limit profanity and vulgarity in the classroom during school hours [… they’re not] powerless to prevent student speech that the administrators reasonably understand to be profane or vulgar.”

(Ironically, the brothers’ principal, Joseph Williams, had said he “was not aware that the school had experienced any disruption from students wearing ‘Let’s Go Brandon’” sweatshirts.)

FIRE’s petition to the SCOTUS notes the previous rulings allow individual teachers and administrators to “create and enforce their own test for ‘vulgarity’ [–] a political shirt could have First Amendment protection in second-period algebra but not third-period biology.”

“Let’s Go Brandon” is no different than using words “heck” or “shoot” in place of their obvious profane counterparts.

FIRE Supervising Senior Attorney Conor Fitzpatrick said “The school district’s censorship assumes that students cannot handle seeing even sanitized expressions. But America’s next generation is not so fragile, and the First Amendment is not so brittle.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 17:30

MiB: Judd Kessler, Lucky by Design

The Big Picture -



 

 

This week, I speak with Judd Kessler, author of “Lucky by Design: The Hidden Economics You Need to Get More of What You Want,” and a professor at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

We discuss his research into the hidden markets that allocate value to desirable things such as restaurant reservations. We also delve into Judd’s research into how couples allocate their resources within a relationship and possible alternate ways to distribute concert tickets.

A list of his current reading/favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (audio), YouTube (video), and Bloomberg.All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Songyee Yoon, founder and managing partner of Principal Venture Partners, an AI-focused investment firm established in 2024, and since 2025 a member of the board of directors of HP Inc.

 

 

 

Authored Book

 

Current Reading/Favorite Books

 

 

 

The post MiB: Judd Kessler, Lucky by Design appeared first on The Big Picture.

Debbie Dupes Dallas: Porn Legends Clone Themselves With AI To Keep Raking It In Long After Retiring

Zero Hedge -

Debbie Dupes Dallas: Porn Legends Clone Themselves With AI To Keep Raking It In Long After Retiring

Worn-out porn stars have found a fresh way to keep raking in the cash long after they've aged out of the business, according to a new report from WIRED.

Joi.com

OhChat, a British startup that lets adult creators clone themselves with AI, has inked deals with Lisa Ann and Cherie DeVille to license their likenesses on the platform, basically creating a digital version of them in every possible way that can churn out custom sex scenes for paying customers.

Despite leaving the business in 2019, Lisa Ann now charges $30 per month to give fans the ability to cook up X-rated scenarios of her using the bot.

“This keeps my name alive,” said of her AI clone in an interview with WIRED. “She’s never going to age.”

“For guys that like to say good morning or good night, they now have that access. The fact that I'm not shooting scenes anymore also allows new scenes to be created,” she added.

Adult performer Alix Lynx licensed her image to Joi.com

WIRED reports:

Other competitors in the space include My.Club, Joi AI and SinfulX AI, the platform that adult film actress Georgia Koneva partnered with this month, saying, in a press statement, that her avatar gave her a “new way to share my voice and personality with the people who follow me.” According to SinfulX AI, it also develops “original” synthetic characters using licensed source imagery from adult performers whose content it has the rights to use. In the same statement, the company said that those AI-generated “characters” are “designed not to replicate any single individual while still maintaining the realism for which its content is known.”

However, Ann concedes that human porn is still preferred by a majority of people.“Guys are always going to want real content. Men are always going to want to see new scenes. There will always be a need for all of it. But the fact that I’ve never been awake from 11 pm to 7 am, and now there’s a 24-hour clone that can chat for me—that alone is something. It allows me to keep my brand alive,” she said.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 16:55

O'Reilly Exposes San Francisco As A Violent Third-World Drug Dystopia Infested By Illegals

Zero Hedge -

O'Reilly Exposes San Francisco As A Violent Third-World Drug Dystopia Infested By Illegals

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

Veteran commentator Bill O’Reilly just returned from filming a special in San Francisco — and the reality on the ground is far worse than most Americans understand.

O’Reilly painted a stark picture of a city ruined by open borders, sanctuary laws, and Democrat leadership that refuses to enforce basic order.

In raw footage shot inside the Tenderloin neighborhood - now a notorious open-air drug market - O’Reilly showed how the system itself perpetuates the collapse. 

“What the currency here is, is heroin, cocaine, methamphetamine, all of it tinged now with fentanyl, which will kill you like that,” he reported, adding “Now these addicted people, these street people, they don’t care whether they live or die. Their whole lives center around intoxication.”

“At the same time the city gives them needles, crack pipes, it’s just insane. So the problem never gets solved. It’s circular,” O’Reilly emphasised.

“Now, why do they come here? Why not go to Des Moines or some place like that? Because the City of San Francisco and the State of California gives them MONEY, as we discussed earlier. Cash! For nothing! And they use the cash to get intoxicated, to buy drugs. So why wouldn’t you come here, to San Francisco?” O’Reilly further urged.

Here’s a longer segment:

O’Reilly then laid out the bigger picture in an interview segment, naming the illegal gangs driving the violence and the officials who have done nothing to stop it. 

“You know who sells narcotics down there in San Francisco and in Oakland?” O’Reilly said. “Honduran drug gangs who are here illegally.”

“You know who protects them? The sanctuary laws of San Francisco and California.”

“They strut around armed to the teeth, knowing that no one on the federal level can bother them, because the state and the city won’t cooperate as almost every state does with joint task force. California won’t do it,” he stressed.

“So Honduran drug gangs in this country illegally are fueling a MASSIVE fentanyl crisis that has destroyed the city of San Francisco. And the mayor knows it. And the governor knows it. And Pelosi knows it. And Kamala Harris knows it, and they NEVER did anything about it,” O’Reilly added.

O’Reilly described scenes that belong in a failed state: children walking to school forced to watch drug addicts inject needles into their necks. He detailed machete violence tied directly to the same illegal gangs.

“Now, Hondurans here illegally cut off people’s hands with machetes if they don’t pay their drug debts,” he continued. “This isn’t about narcotics. This is about massive violence.”

“It was once the most beautiful city in the country. I used to love to go there. Meanwhile, two miles away, Nancy Pelosi is living in an $8 million house guarded by security. So she doesn’t have to experience any of it,” O’Reilly detailed.

This collapse did not happen overnight. It is the direct outcome of the same policies that have been ongoing for years.

San Francisco’s office district has not only become a ghost town but is literally covered in human waste. 

Cash App founder Bob Lee was stabbed to death in what was supposed to be a “good part” of the city.

More recently, a grim statistic has confirmed San Francisco as one of America’s worst cities. One in eight home sellers lost money, with an average loss of $100,000.

The videos of needles, tents, open drug use, and total breakdown of public order have been there for anyone willing to see them.

Yet the same officials O’Reilly names kept pushing the same failed approach: sanctuary protections shielding illegal gangs, cash payments to addicts, free needles and pipes, and zero cooperation with federal immigration enforcement.

The result is a once-iconic American city turned into a fentanyl-soaked zone where schoolchildren dodge junkies and violent illegal gangs operate openly while the political class retreats behind private security.

O’Reilly’s reporting confirms what millions already know from citizen videos and on-the-ground accounts: unchecked illegal immigration, sanctuary cities, and the progressive “harm reduction” model are not acts of compassion. They are policies that destroy urban America.

The elites who engineered this disaster never have to live with the consequences. Pelosi does not walk the Tenderloin. Harris did not fix the problem during her time in California. Newsom still refuses to confront it.

Only a sharp return to secure borders, actual enforcement of immigration law, and rejection of the open-air drug market model can reverse decades of damage. San Francisco stands as living proof of what happens when those basic principles are abandoned. Anything less simply keeps feeding the same deadly cycle.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 16:20

Alarming West Texas Oil Theft Emerges As National Security Threat

Zero Hedge -

Alarming West Texas Oil Theft Emerges As National Security Threat

Criminals are exploiting weak points across the West Texas oil production region, which accounts for 15% of the world's energy resources. This emerging wave of oil theft is burning a multi-billion-dollar hole in the budgets of oil and gas operators across the Permian Basin and is becoming a national security threat.

Bloomberg reports that oil and gas producers are losing at least $1 billion, if not more, per year due to oilfield theft in what the outlet describes as something straight out of a "Mad Max" movie.

At the center of the Permian Basin is Martin County, one of the most important oil-producing counties in the country.

The outlet spoke with Sheriff Randy Cozart, who estimates that about 500 barrels of crude are stolen each week. Industry groups say statewide losses are accumulating and range from $1 billion to $2 billion annually.

"Where there's money, there's crime," Cozart explained. "And there's lots of money in oil right now," he said, especially with WTI prices near triple-digit territory due in part to the energy shock in the Middle East.

One of the major problems in the Permian Basin is the recent increase in criminal activity, which some say is due to the Biden-Harris administration's nation-killing open-border policies.

Ed Longanecker, president of the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association, told the outlet that oil companies in the region could incur losses of up to $2 billion. He said that figure does not cover thefts across the New Mexico portion of the Permian.

"The old joke in the oil field used to be that if it wasn't bolted down, it would get stolen," Michael Lozano, who runs government affairs and communications for the Permian Basin Petroleum Association, said, adding, "Now they're unscrewing the bolts, and they're stealing those too."

A recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey of oil executives showed that at least 60% said their operations were affected by oil thefts. 

Bloomberg described one method thieves use to steal oil:

Today's Permian Basin thieves might instead connect vacuum trucks to storage tanks in broad daylight and siphon it out, sometimes covering their license plates or swapping vehicles to evade law enforcement, authorities say.

Now, regulators and the FBI have taken notice because these oil thefts are becoming a growing economic security and critical infrastructure threat.

Local officials in Texas and New Mexico are closely watching the oil theft crisis. Texas has responded by creating a task force under the Railroad Commission, lawmakers are studying total economic losses, and the FBI has become more involved.

The question now is whether the energy shock emerging from the Middle East and the resulting national security threats will pressure states and the federal government to fortify critical energy infrastructure from the Gulf of America to the Permian Basin and elsewhere, as the risk of drone threats and sabotage continues to rise.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 15:45

Fannie Mae Set To Accept Crypto As Collateral For Home Loans For First Time

Zero Hedge -

Fannie Mae Set To Accept Crypto As Collateral For Home Loans For First Time

Fannie Mae, the giant government-backed mortgage securitizer, is preparing to accept cryptocurrency as collateral for home loans for the first time, marking a further step in the integration of digital assets into traditional U.S. housing finance, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Mortgage lender Better Home & Finance Holding Co. and crypto exchange Coinbase are teaming up to allow home buyers to pledge Bitcoin or the USDC stablecoin to secure a down payment on a Fannie Mae-conforming mortgage.

While crypto-backed mortgages have existed in limited forms, Fannie Mae’s involvement—through loans it will purchase and guarantee—could bring such arrangements into the mainstream of the $12 trillion U.S. mortgage market.

The Journal has more details:

The new mortgage product works like this: A home buyer gets a traditional 15- or 30-year Fannie-backed mortgage from Better. Instead of making a cash down payment, the buyer gets a separate loan, backed by either bitcoin or USDC, a popular stablecoin.

Paying interest on a second loan instead of making a cash down payment can increase the overall cost of homeownership significantly. The interest rate on both loans would range from comparable to typical Fannie Mae mortgages to 1.5 percentage points higher.

“A lot of those crypto owners and investors have not been able to become homeowners,” because they don’t want to sell their crypto investments, said Max Branzburg, Coinbase’s head of consumer and business products. “We haven’t really had the best way to service that need.”

The development comes as the Trump administration moves to enact regulation aimed at establishing the United States as the number one destination for building crypto companies.

Speaking in January at the World Economic Forum, President Trump said he helped secure America’s place as the “crypto capital of the world” by backing legislation aimed at boosting the digital asset industry.

Trump touted his signing of a “landmark GENIUS Act” last year, focused on stablecoins, partly to gain political support and partly to keep China from leading the space.

"China wanted that market too," the president told attendees. "We have to make it so that China doesn't get the hold of it. It's just like they want the AI, and we've got that market, I think, pretty well locked up."

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 14:00

How To Convert Your 401(k) Into A Reliable Monthly Paycheck

Zero Hedge -

How To Convert Your 401(k) Into A Reliable Monthly Paycheck

Authored by Adam H. Douglas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Yes, you can turn your 401(k) into a predictable monthly paycheck in retirement. The key is to move from the accumulation phase to a structured distribution strategy. Many retirees combine systematic withdrawals, dividend-producing investments, and guaranteed income sources such as annuities.

Smart planning can turn your 401(k) balance into a predictable cash flow. Ladanifer/Shutterstock

By balancing these tools and managing withdrawal rates carefully, you can convert a fluctuating retirement account balance into a steady income stream that helps cover monthly living expenses throughout retirement.

Why the Distribution Phase Matters

During your working years, your focus is simple: build the largest retirement account balance possible. Contributions, employer matches, and market growth drive the accumulation phase.

Once you stop working, your 401(k) must shift from a growth vehicle into an income engine. Instead of asking, “How big is my account balance?” the better question becomes, “How much income can this generate each month?”

Without a clear strategy, withdrawals can become inconsistent and risky. Market downturns early in retirement may reduce your portfolio faster than expected.

To help you before you retire, here’s a structured income framework.

Creating a Retirement Paycheck From a 401(k) Step 1: Estimate Your Monthly Retirement Income Needs

Before converting your 401(k) into income, start with a clear picture of your retirement spending.

Most retirees separate expenses into two categories:

Essential expenses

  • housing costs
  • utilities
  • food and transportation
  • health insurance and medical care

Discretionary spending

  • travel
  • hobbies
  • dining and entertainment

A common guideline suggests retirees aim to replace 70–80 percent of their pre-retirement income, though the exact number varies based on lifestyle and debt levels.

Once you determine your monthly income goal, you can begin designing a withdrawal strategy that supports it.

Step 2: Use a Systematic Withdrawal Strategy

One of the simplest ways to create a retirement paycheck is through systematic withdrawals: taking out a set amount from your retirement account each month or quarter.

One guideline is the 4 percent rule. You withdraw roughly 4 percent of your retirement portfolio during the first year of retirement and adjust amounts annually for inflation.

The rule is meant to help portfolios last about 30 years under historical market conditions. However, it works best when combined with a diversified portfolio and flexibility during volatile markets.

Many retirement plans allow you to set automatic monthly distributions, which can mimic the feel of receiving a paycheck.

Step 3: Add Dividend-Producing Investments

Another way to generate consistent retirement income is through dividend-paying assets.

Dividend stocks and income-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) distribute cash payments to investors regularly, often quarterly.

These payments can supplement your systematic withdrawals.

Potential dividend sources include:

  • dividend-paying blue-chip stocks
  • dividend-focused ETFs
  • real estate investment trusts (REITs)
  • high-quality corporate bonds

For example, a portfolio producing a 3 percent dividend yield on a $600,000 investment could generate about $18,000 annually, or $1,500 per month before taxes.

Dividend income may help reduce how much you need to sell during market downturns, which can help protect your portfolio from sequence-of-returns risk.

Step 4: Consider Guaranteed Income Options

Some retirees prefer adding income sources that resemble traditional pensions.

Annuities are insurance products that convert a lump sum into guaranteed payments for a fixed period or for life.

Common types include:

  • Immediate annuities: Begin paying income shortly after purchase.
  • Deferred income annuities: Start payments later in retirement.
  • Longevity annuities: Designed to protect against the risk of outliving your savings.

For example, converting a portion of your 401(k) into an immediate annuity may produce monthly payments that continue regardless of market conditions.

While annuities provide stability, they typically limit flexibility and may involve fees, so many retirees use them only for part of their retirement savings.

Step 5: Manage Taxes and Required Minimum Distributions

Withdrawals from traditional 401(k) accounts are typically taxed as ordinary income.

After age 73, the Internal Revenue Service also requires minimum distributions (RMDs), which mandate that retirees withdraw a certain percentage of their retirement accounts each year.

Tax planning strategies may include:

  • gradual withdrawals before RMD age
  • Roth IRA conversions during lower-income years
  • coordinating withdrawals with Social Security income

Managing these factors carefully can help reduce taxes and preserve more of your retirement income.

Step 6: Build a Balanced Retirement Income Plan

The most resilient retirement paycheck strategies combine several income sources.

Diversifying income streams can reduce reliance on any single source and provide greater financial stability throughout retirement.

Keep in Mind
  • Market volatility can affect withdrawal sustainability if downturns occur early in retirement.
  • Inflation reduces purchasing power over time, especially during long retirements.
  • Longevity risk means your income plan may need to support 25–30 years or more.
  • Adjusting withdrawals during weak market years and maintaining a diversified portfolio can help your retirement income last longer.
Frequently Asked Questions About Turning a 401(k) Into Monthly Income How Much Monthly Income Can a 401(k) Provide?

The amount of income a 401(k) can generate depends on your account balance, withdrawal rate, and investment returns. Withdrawing about 4 percent annually is a common guideline. For example, a $750,000 retirement account could generate roughly $30,000 per year, or about $2,500 per month. However, retirees often supplement withdrawals with Social Security benefits, dividend income, or annuities. Retirement spending needs, health care costs, and expected lifespan should all be considered when estimating how much monthly income your 401(k) can support.

Can You Set Up Automatic Monthly Payments From a 401(k)?

Yes, most retirement plan providers allow you to schedule automatic distributions from your account. These systematic withdrawals can be set up monthly, quarterly, or annually, depending on your preference. Many retirees choose monthly payments to create a predictable “retirement paycheck.” Distribution amounts can often be adjusted over time to account for inflation, investment performance, or changes in spending needs. Automatic withdrawals may help budget discipline and avoid large lump-sum withdrawals that could disrupt long-term portfolio sustainability.

What Is the Biggest Risk When Withdrawing From a 401(k)?

Sequence-of-returns risk, which occurs when major market losses happen early in retirement while you are withdrawing funds, is one of the biggest. Early losses can permanently reduce your portfolio and shorten lifespans. Retirees often manage this risk by holding diversified investments, maintaining a cash buffer, and adjusting withdrawals during market downturns. Strategies such as dividend income and annuities may also reduce the need to sell investments during periods of market stress, helping preserve long-term retirement income stability.

The Epoch Times copyright © 2026. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times holds no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 12:50

Hormuz Bypasses Maxed Out: Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Record 7 MMb/d, As UAE Fujairah Crude Loadings Reach Capacity

Zero Hedge -

Hormuz Bypasses Maxed Out: Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Record 7 MMb/d, As UAE Fujairah Crude Loadings Reach Capacity

The ramp up in Saudi Arabia's Hormuz-bypassing East-West pipeline has been nothing short of remarkable.

Two days after we reported that flow through the pipeline which crosses Saudi Arabia east to west for oil flows (hence the name) and is also known as the Abqaiq-Yanbu pipeline for nat gas flows had doubled from roughly 1.5 million before the war, today Bloomberg updates on the latest flow numbers and it now appears that the crucial East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 million barrels a day. 

Crude exports via Yanbu have now reached about 5 million barrels a day and the kingdom is also exporting 700,000 to 900,000 barrels a day of refined products, according to the Bloomberg source familiar with the Saudi oil industry. Of the 7 million barrels a day that go through the pipeline, 2 million are destined for Saudi refineries. 

This remarkable achievement, which many experts predicted would take weeks longer to achieve, is the culmination of the kingdom’s longstanding contingency plan for keeping its oil flowing after the effective closure of their main export route. Meanwhile, the Red Sea next to the Saudi port terminal of Yanbu is becoming a bit of a tanker parking lot as flotillas of tankers patiently await to collect the oil, providing an important lifeline for global supply.

As reported previously, Saudi Arabia has been preparing for decades for the worst-case scenario of Hormuz closing. It put its contingency plan to work within hours of the first US and Israeli strikes on Iran, and has been ramping up east-west shipments ever since. Running the breadth of the Arabian Peninsula from the massive oil fields in the east of the country to the industrial port city of Yanbu, the pipeline is more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) long. It’s a by-product of a previous conflict - the 1980s Iran-Iraq war - which saw attacks on ships in the Strait, but nothing like the unprecedented near-closure the current conflict has caused.

Despite the record flow, the Yanbu route still only partly offsets the hit to supply from shutting Hormuz, through which about 15 million barrels a day of crude shipments passed before the war. But the bypass is one reason oil prices haven’t reached the crisis-level highs of previous supply shocks. 

However, with Yemen’s Houthis now saying they are entering the war, the concern for oil markets will be that the Red Sea becomes a new front in the conflict. While the Houthis have not given any indication they would attack tankers going through the Red Sea and Bab El-Mandeb strait, they have previously threatened shipping in the area with drones and missiles.

UAE's Fujairah Nears Capacity

It's not just Saudi Arabia that has been ramping up its options to bypass the Strait: the United Arab Emirates has also maxed out oil exports from a vital port that lies outside the Strait of Hormuz, after some of the biggest crude loading infrastructure resumed operations following Iranian drone strikes earlier this month.

The largest crude operations by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) in Fujairah are picking up after they had halted March 14. The port in the UAE’s east coast has a critical role as an outlet for oil bypassing the all-but shut Hormuz waterway, making it among the energy sites most frequently targeted by Tehran. After Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, it’s the biggest exit point for Persian Gulf crude circumventing the maritime chokepoint.

As Bloomberg reports, the return of much of Adnoc’s operations helped push up crude loading to about 1.9 million barrels a day over the March 20-24 period. That’s up 57% from the average flows of about 1.21 million barrels a day over the past year, as the UAE pushes to get more cargoes out through the route with Hormuz still mostly blocked.

The latest crude oil export figures suggest a 252-mile (406-kilometer) Adnoc-owned pipeline - linking Habshan, the collection point for Abu Dhabi’s onshore fields, to the port - is operating close to its capacity.

The uptick compares with an average of 1.48 million barrels a day for the month through March 24. More recent exports still need to be verified as electronic jamming is widely blocking the transmission of satellite signals that allow tracking in the region.

Fujairah’s proximity to Iran - it’s about 80 miles (130 kilometers) south of Hormuz, nestled in the shadow of the Al Hajar mountains - makes it more vulnerable than Yanbu. Over the past four weeks, Tehran has attacked Fujairah at least seven times, destroying storage tanks and causing fires in a petrochemicals complex.

Besides crude oil, Fujairah also has large fuel-loading operations. Part of that system is still out of commission, after a key manifold was damaged in a strike more than three weeks ago. Most fuel is currently being loaded via an older section of the port, which connects directly to the ship berths without going via the manifold, according to people with knowledge of the situation. Refineries, including one run by a unit of Vitol Group, are still halted.

Fujairah — which became a refueling port for tankers during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, before the construction of storage tanks at the turn of the century — exported its first crude in 2012.

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“It took foresight to build a pipeline that bypasses the strait and was an effort to reduce dependence on a single chokepoint,” said Ben Cahill, director for energy markets and policy at the University of Texas at Austin’s center for energy. “At this point, every barrel matters.”

Still, Iranian attacks have deterred some shippers from calling at Fujairah, while loading systems and storage tanks — especially at the port’s product terminals — have been damaged.  More importantly, those initial strikes damaged systems in the port, known as the Matrix Manifolds, which manage the flow of oil from each of the tank farms. Refined products are pumped through a complex web of piping arriving at a single point where the flows are then directed to any of more than a dozen ship berths.

A tank farm run by companies including Royal Vopak of the Netherlands and Dubai’s Emirates National Oil Co. halted loadings when the initial strikes crippled the manifolds, according to the people who asked not to be identified discussing operational issues. Loading from the Vopak Horizon terminal restarted late this week, according to a March 26 report from Inchchape Shipping Services.

Now Fujairah is working to restore full export capacity for refined products from a vast network of storage tanks that can store up to 70 million barrels. Fujairah has also developed into one of the top three ports for bunker fuel — the propellant used by ships — although the effective closure of Hormuz has curbed demand.

According to Bloomberg, traders took a net 404,000 barrels of fuel out of Fujairah’s tanks in the week through March 23, representing a 2.8% decline in stocks, according to data from the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone and compiled by Platts, a unit of S&P Global Inc. While some terminal operators are trying to empty their tanks to reduce fire risks, others have been reluctant to load for fear that would make them a target, according to people familiar with the operations.

Finally, taking a look at the Hormuz closure, which remains Iran's only remaining Trump card and which Tehran has now played, increasingly more ships are now crossing: in addition to China and India, traditionally the biggest export clients of gulf oil, Japan has also reportedly reached a deal with Iran to be allowed passage. This morning, Thailand Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said his country had negotiated an agreement with Iran to allow the safe passage of Thai oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Anutin said the agreement would ease some concerns about Thailand’s oil supply. The Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs said this week it had successfully secured the passage through the strait of a tanker owned by the Bangchak Corporation, a Thai energy conglomerate. Earlier this month Iran said its forces fired on a Thai-flagged cargo ship, Mayuree Naree, which caught fire north of Oman after being hit by an unknown projectile. Three crew members went missing and another 20 were rescued.

Also on Saturday morning, ship tracking services reported that two LPG tankers and two bulk carriers exited the Gulf, with all four ships following a northern route that passes through the narrow gap between the two Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm which many speculate the US will seek to take over with a marine invasion due to their critical importance in halting strait traffic.

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 12:15

Audits Spotlight Unusual Trends In Medicaid Spending For Autism Care

Zero Hedge -

Audits Spotlight Unusual Trends In Medicaid Spending For Autism Care

Authored by Sylvia Xu via The Epoch Times,

One in 31 U.S. children has an autism diagnosis. Among Minnesota’s Somali community, that number jumps to one in 12.

That discrepancy made headlines last fall when the Department of Justice charged a Somali woman with netting millions in fraudulent autism services.

Now, state and federal investigators are putting autism spending in the spotlight.

The September 2025 federal indictment alleged that a therapy center—run by 28-year-old Asha Farhan Hassan—recruited Somali children for an autism services program that was then reimbursed by Medicaid.

The White House pointed to the indictment on March 16 in an executive order announcing the creation of a federal task force to eliminate fraud.

“The staggering fraud and waste in Minnesota alone is a case in point,”  the order reads.

“There is also strong reason to believe that similar problems exist in other States, including California, Illinois, New York, Maine, and Colorado.”

Nationwide, Medicaid spending for autism therapy services increased by over 200 percent between 2018 and 2024—nearly four times the rate of overall Medicaid spending. In some states, the increase was much higher.

The surge is linked to what Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has called an autism epidemic, including “an alarming escalation in case severity, and increasingly stark disparities across racial and ethnic groups.”

However, investigators say the rise in spending can’t be explained by the increase in diagnoses or escalation in severity alone.

Meanwhile, a series of federal audits has drawn attention to four states where auditors found millions in “improper” or incorrectly billed payments for Medicaid-funded autism services.

Here is a look at states that have uncovered higher-than-usual Medicaid spending for autism services.

Minnesota

Since 2018, Minnesota has spent more than $18 billion on 14 Medicaid programs considered “high risk” for fraud, Assistant U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson said in December.

More than $9 billion of that money went to fraud, Thompson estimated, announcing another autism related indictment.

The state’s Early Intensive Developmental and Behavioral Intervention program, which treats children under 21 with autism spectrum disorder, is under particular scrutiny.

It’s the coverage framework for services like applied behavior analysis, a major part of the program.

Applied behavior analysis is a widely used behavior therapy, primarily used with children who have been diagnosed with autism or other developmental disorders. It can include teaching children to follow directions or practicing communication or social skills. Registered behavior technicians usually administer the therapy, supervised by more highly trained behavior analysts.

On March 17, Minnesota released the results of its own audit investigating allegations of kickbacks in the state’s autism services program.

For over 30 years, the report said, the state’s definition of “fraud” has not included kickbacks.

“While DHS could have acted at any time to revise its rules, it has permitted the error to stand since 1995, limiting its authority to address kickbacks,” the report said.

Meanwhile, the cost of the state’s autism early intervention service increased nearly 1,600 percent from 2019 to 2024, according to a March report from the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

Enrollment ballooned by more than 620 percent during those years.

A state-commissioned report from United Health Group’s Optum division found Minnesota could have saved more than $1 billion in autism early intervention costs between January 2022 and October 2025, if officials had clarified ambiguous policies. An addendum to the January report revised that number to $703 million.

An investigation revealed patterns of claims that didn’t match clear policies or procedures.

“If the pre-payment system being developed now had been in place at the time, these items would have been flagged for further review and payments paused, until additional investigation was completed,” John Connolly, deputy human services commissioner and state Medicaid director, said in February.

“This is not a measure of fraud, waste and abuse, but it shows us where we need to do more work to understand why these claims are raising red flags,” Connolly said in a statement.

Nebraska

Nebraska’s Medicaid spending for applied behavior analysis increased notably over a similar time period. It grew by 1,700 percent from 2020 to 2024, according to a report last fall from the state’s Health and Human Services department.

The number of companies providing applied behavior analysis services nearly quadrupled, growing from 10 to 38 over the four years.

The number of behavior analysts and technicians billing for autism services in the Cornhusker State rose by 761 percent from 2019 to 2024—higher than Minnesota’s rate of growth in that area, which was 646 percent, according to a December report from Trilliant Health, a health care analytics company.

The payment rates in Nebraska were the highest in the nation, according to the Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services.

“We found that Nebraska’s rates for these services have been significantly higher, some more than twice as high, as those of other state Medicaid programs,” said Drew Gonshorowski, Medicaid and long-term care division director for the department.

A behavior technician in Nebraska earned $36.11 per 15-minute unit in 2024. That’s slightly more than $144 an hour, and 130 percent higher than the national average.

Behavior technicians typically undergo 40 hours of training and must have a minimum of a high school diploma.

In August 2025, the state agency reduced Medicaid payment for a behavior technician by 48 percent, bringing the rate from $36.11 to $18.70 per 15-minute unit, or $74.80 per hour.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, spending on autism therapy is projected to exceed $1 billion over the next two years.

Medicaid spending on applied behavior analysis in the state grew by 347 percent from 2022 to 2025, North Carolina Medicaid deputy secretary Melanie Bush reported in a joint legislative oversight committee meeting March 10.

“Nothing here can answer the question of where that growth rate is coming from,” state Sen. Ralph Hise said during the meeting.

Spending growth was concentrated among a small number of providers and far outpaced growth in new provider enrollment, according to a report from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services.

Utilization growth also increased faster than the autism diagnoses, the report said.

While total Medicaid enrollees receiving applied behavior analysis services grew by 249 percent over the four years, the number of 15-minute service increments increased even more, by 305 percent.

“Utilization growth far outpaces increases in Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) diagnosis,” the report said, adding that it’s “unlikely that this level of growth can be explained by increased access alone.”

Massachusetts

MassHealth, the Medicaid and children’s health insurance program for Massachusetts, overpaid autism service providers $17.3 million in 2024, according to an audit report from the state’s Office of the Inspector General.

The state’s spending on autism services rose 36 percent between 2021 and 2023, according to the 2024 report.

State rules require that a licensed applied behavior analyst provide at least one hour of supervision for every 10 hours of therapy given by a technician.

Nearly $16.8 million was overpaid because the therapy provided was over that ratio and should not have been billed, the audit found.

Further, from 2018 to 2022, behavior technician roles in the state grew at twice the pace of licensed supervisor positions, at 129 percent and 52 percent, respectively.

When applied behavior analysis is not properly supervised, it undermines the quality of care for vulnerable children and results in the waste of public funds, the audit concluded.

Federal Audits

At the federal level, the HHS Office of Inspector General is investigating services and billing patterns for Medicaid applied behavior analysis services provided to children with autism.

The audits, which began in 2022, have been completed for four states: Colorado, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Maine. Three other audits remain in progress.

The federal agency estimated nearly $200 million in improper payments and more than $400 million in potential improper payments for these states.

The completed audits found payments that were improper or potentially improper in 100 percent of reviewed claims. That was often due to inadequate records, such as missing progress notes, lack of supervision logs, or billing issues.

However, the audits also uncovered problems that could affect the quality and safety of care, such as criminal convictions for weapons offenses, assault or driving under the influence.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 11:40

French Police Foil Overnight Terror Plot: Suspect Caught Trying To Ignite Bomb Outside BofA Headquarters In Paris

Zero Hedge -

French Police Foil Overnight Terror Plot: Suspect Caught Trying To Ignite Bomb Outside BofA Headquarters In Paris

French anti-terrorism authorities thwarted an attempted attack early Saturday morning when police arrested a suspect as he tried to ignite an explosive device directly in front of the Bank of America headquarters in Paris. 

The incident unfolded around 3:25-3:30 a.m. when officers from the Paris police's BAC (Brigade Anti-Criminalité) unit, already on heightened patrol near the building due to prior threats, spotted the individual attempting to set fire to the device with a lighter. The device consisted of a 5-liter transparent jerrycan filled with an unidentified flammable liquid (reportedly a hydrocarbon such as gasoline) attached to a mortar-style tube or large firecracker containing approximately 650 grams of explosive powder. No detonation occurred, and there were no injuries or damage.

A second individual, believed to have been acting as a lookout, fled the scene on foot. The arrested suspect, a 17-year-old minor born in Senegal and residing in a Paris suburb, was taken into custody. During initial questioning, he reportedly claimed he had been dropped off at the location by a driver and was recruited via the social media app Snapchat for a payment of €600 to carry out the act.

BofA Paris HQ, April 2019

According to Le Monde, France’s Parquet National Antiterroriste (PNAT), the national anti-terrorism prosecutor’s office, immediately opened a formal investigation. The probe is being conducted in flagrante delicto on charges including:

  • Attempted degradation by fire or dangerous means in connection with a terrorist undertaking
  • Manufacturing, possession, and transport of an incendiary or explosive device in a terrorist context
  • Participation in a terrorist criminal association

The Paris judicial police’s anti-terrorism section and France’s domestic intelligence agency, the DGSI, are leading the inquiry alongside judicial police units. The device was secured and sent for analysis by the Paris police prefecture’s central laboratory.

Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez praised the officers’ swift action on social media, stating: “Bravo to the rapid intervention of a Paris prefecture crew that allowed thwarting a violent action of a terrorist nature this night in Paris. Vigilance remains more than ever at a high level.”

A spokeswoman for Bank of America confirmed the company was “aware of the situation” and is cooperating with French authorities. The building had reportedly been under increased surveillance due to previous threats, including a recent video from a pro-Iran group that singled out the bank as a target linked to “Zionist and Israeli interests.”

This foiled plot occurs against a backdrop of heightened terrorist threat levels in France and Europe, with authorities maintaining elevated vigilance amid ongoing international tensions. The investigation continues, with efforts focused on identifying any broader network or accomplices. No further arrests have been reported as of Saturday afternoon.

The suspect remains in police custody, and authorities have not yet released additional details about his background or possible motives. Updates are expected as the probe advances.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 11:30

Russia Warns Situation At Bushehr Nuclear Plant Deteriorating After 3rd Airstrike In Ten Days

Zero Hedge -

Russia Warns Situation At Bushehr Nuclear Plant Deteriorating After 3rd Airstrike In Ten Days

On Friday Iran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency that Bushehr nuclear power plant was struck by US-Israeli attacks for the third time since the start of the war.

At the same time, the head of Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom has confirmed that the situation continues to deteriorate; however, there's as yet been no damage to the operating reactor and no release of radiation reported. It was the third strike in just ten days.

The Kremlin has newly accused Washington and Israel of putting the whole region in danger, and further of harming the cause of nuclear non-proliferation globally.

Anadolu Agency

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has issued a fresh statement: "The drama of the situation is aggravated by the fact that countries attacking peaceful nuclear facilities in Iran are effectively undermining the NPT, the IAEA's verification mechanisms, nuclear and physical security conventions, as well as the agency's relevant regulations," according to the ministry's website.

"Carefully crafted and internationally agreed solutions are not taken seriously by these states and can be discarded at any moment in favor of their selfish interests and geopolitical considerations," the spokeswoman added.

Zakharova further communicated that atrocities in Iran must cease, and nuclear sites must be safeguarded, referencing the latest attacks in the past days on the complex in Khondab, the factory in Ardakan, and the strikes near the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

"The aggressors continue to raise the stakes in their war in the Middle East, ignoring all associated risks, including the danger of widespread radioactive contamination," Zakharova said.

She further chastised UN and international bodies for not stepping up to loudly condemn the US-Israeli operation.

Russia has a direct interest in Iran's nuclear sites, given hundreds of Russian experts and technicians have long helped operate them, and support the Islamic Republic's domestic nuclear power generation for its electricity needs. Reuters reported this week:

Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom ​evacuated a further ‌163 of its staff from Iran's Bushehr nuclear ​power plant on ​Wednesday, the state-run RIA ⁠news agency reported.

It ​cited Rosatom chief Alexei ​Likhachev as saying about 300 of the company's staff ​remained at Bushehr, ​but more would be leaving.

Some 500 to 1,000 Russian staff are there during normal operations, and presumably many more are at other sites throughout the country. Russia helped construct many of these very complexes many years ago.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 11:05

Maersk Slaps Emergency Fuel Surcharge As War Upends Marine Supply Chains

Zero Hedge -

Maersk Slaps Emergency Fuel Surcharge As War Upends Marine Supply Chains

Submitted by Michael Kern of OilPrice.com,

The war in the Middle East has upended shipping fuel markets with prices of marine fuels skyrocketing and regions running low on supply, pushing some traders to forgo cargo and ship additional fuel volumes to key bunkering ports outside the Middle East.

The price of fuel oil has surged this month as the stalled tanker traffic at the Strait of Hormuz is tightening supplies of the fuel in Asia, the key bunkering hub for fuel oil used in ships.

The Middle East is a major global supplier of fuel oil, especially of high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO). But the Iran war has all but halted traffic via the Strait of Hormuz, stranding supplies for Asia and its key bunkering hub of Singapore.

Yet, stocks in Singapore have increased this month as shipping owners and operators have refrained from buying the too expensive fuel. These, however, could soon start to deplete, fast, because vessels are becoming desperate to refuel, according to a Financial Times analysis.

One trader told the publication that their firm had to forgo cargo in order to deliver additional fuel volumes between major ports, mostly between the United States and Singapore.

With the Middle East's key bunkering port of Fujairah mostly offline by the end of March due to Iranian attacks earlier this month, the marine fuel market is in chaos.

Shipping giant Maersk warned in its latest Middle East advisory this week that "To preserve network stability, we have undertaken significant redistribution of fuels to offset shortages in the Middle East, and are securing alternative sources from different locations, suppliers, and at increased premiums."

Maersk also introduced as of March 25 an Emergency Bunker Surcharge (EBS), "in response to notable fluctuations in fuel supply and the additional costs of distribution."

Maersk's chief commercial officer Karsten Kildahl said earlier this month that "There is currently sufficient fuel globally, but it is unevenly distributed. As a result, we are making changes to our fuel supply chain and begin moving fuel to ensure our vessels can continue to bunker where needed – and protect the flow of trade."

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/28/2026 - 10:30

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