Will Europe Have Its Own FBI? Polish MEP Sounds Alarm Over EU's Planned Expansion Of Powers For Europol

Via Remix News,

Polish Law and Justice (PiS) MEP Mariusz Kamiński raises alarm about the European Commission’s plans to change Europol’s operations, warning that “the European Commission is quietly building EU law enforcement agencies,” reports Do Rzeczy. There are now fears that Europe could have its own FBI, with vastly expanded and centralized powers.

“The European Public Prosecutor’s Office has already been established, and now the European Commission wants to turn Europol into a ‘truly operational EU police agency.’ This means that citizens of member states will be able to become the target of investigations and operational activities of European law enforcement agencies, bypassing national authorities. This would be a real ‘milestone’ in the construction of a centralized European state. A very dangerous situation!” wrote the former interior and administration minister on X.

Kamiński sent a letter to the European Commission questioning the activities described and defending Europol as it stands.

The agency has been in operation since Jan. 3, 1994.

He notes that “Europol’s success is based on cooperation, supporting member states, and coordinating the fight against cross-border crime. Europol’s activities are particularly important in combating drug crimes, human smuggling, and VAT fraud. This model is a good example of effective cooperation at the European level.”

“Therefore, I oppose the announcements of transforming Europol into a fully operational police agency, which have been met with criticism from many experts and member states. During the LIBE meeting on March 19, 2026, Commissioner Brunner concluded his statement by saying that it will not be a European FBI, which can be interpreted as a departure from the Commission’s radical announcement,” he continued.

The PiS MEP asks: “How does the Commission understand the concept of a ‘truly operational police agency’?” and about safeguards to ensure that Europol “remains an agency supporting member states and not an authority exercising direct police powers.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 05:00

Cost Of Living Dominates Many Nations' Biggest Worries

According to Statista Consumer Insights, prices and the cost of living are considered the biggest challenge in around half of the 32 countries included in a recent survey. 

This is also true for United States, where the issue ranks first among the 18 surveyed options, with 50 percent citing it as a main concern.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows in the chart below, the issue is also collectively seen as the biggest problem facing Australia, Japan, Germany and Saudi Arabia.

You will find more infographics at Statista

However, this is not the case everywhere.

In Spain (59 percent) and the Netherlands, the availability of housing is perceived as a significantly more pressing challenge.

The same applies to crime in Brazil (62 percent) and other Latin American countries as well as to the economic situation and unemployment cited most often in Italy and India (50-52 percent of respondents).

Poles meanwhile saw health and social security services as the most central problem, with half of respondents picking this issue.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 04:15

The Great Retreat: Beijing's Digital Currency Ambitions Are Faltering

Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

For years, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has positioned the digital yuan (e-CNY) as the ultimate weapon of financial totalitarianism. It was intended to be the crowning achievement of the surveillance state. With a programmable, traceable digital currency, Beijing thought it would finally break the back of private payment giants like Alipay and WeChat Pay.

Signage of the Chinese digital currency is seen near a coffee store in the New Actuation Fintech Center in Beijing on Feb. 17, 2022. Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images

Yet, despite having total control over the levers of the domestic economy, Beijing’s digital dream is showing signs of terminal fatigue.

Since its debut at the 2022 Winter Olympics, the e-CNY has gone from an aggressive, potential retail juggernaut to a low-public-appeal tool for state administration.

In short, nobody really wants it.

The Genesis of Control: Why the e-CNY was Born

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) didn’t launch the digital yuan to make life easier for the average citizen in Shanghai or Shenzhen. It was an aggressive move against the autonomy of the private sector and an offensive tactic to undermine individual privacy.

In 2014, when China’s research into the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) began, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) realized that the vast majority of retail transactions occurred on platforms it did not directly control. The authorities understand that any lack of control is a potential threat to the Party. Therefore, the goal of the digital yuan was “financial inclusion” (a euphemism for state monitoring and control of every cent spent), and the “internationalization of the yuan” to challenge the U.S. dollar.

But most importantly, it was about strengthening the CCP’s “Social Credit System.” A retail CBDC allows the state to freeze assets instantly if a citizen’s behavior deviates from Party orthodoxy.

The Adoption Decline: Why People Refuse to Swipe

Despite distributing millions of dollars in “red envelope” giveaways and forcing government employees in cities like Changshu to receive salaries in e-CNY, adoption has stalled. The reason is simple: there is no consumer benefit, only risk.

Alipay and WeChat Pay already provide a seamless user experience. Transitioning to a state-controlled wallet offers zero additional utility while stripping away the last vestiges of financial anonymity. In a culture where “saving face” and protecting one’s assets from the predatory state are paramount, it seems that the Chinese public has responded with a collective shrug.

A Chinese customer uses his mobile to pay via a QR code with the WeChat app at a local market in Beijing on Sept. 19, 2020. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images A Digital Yuan Reimagined?

Even though domestic digital yuan transaction volumes have made significant gains in terms of percentage of transaction usage, the total remains just a small fraction of the total money supply. In most instances, it’s used for low-value public transit or utility payments before being immediately converted back into traditional bank deposits.

To enhance its appeal as broadly as possible, as of Jan. 1 this year, the central bank is allowing commercial banks to pay interest on e-CNY wallets, making it a savings as well as a payment vehicle. This may be the PBOC’s effort to salvage the digital currency. But it also changes the nature of the original digital yuan as a CBDC, at least to some degree. However, current deposits in China earn a meager 0.05 percent.

Opinions vary on which criteria are optional, but most definitions hold that it’s a “digital form of central bank money.” That strict definition may make the new design make much of the e-CNY no longer a true CBDC.

A New Trade Currency?

Realizing that domestic retail adoption is not where it needs to be, Beijing is shifting its focus toward “Project mBridge”—a multi-CBDC platform designed for cross-border trade between BRICS nations. The strategy for the digital yuan has shifted from monitoring citizens’ grocery shopping habits to bypassing the SWIFT system for oil and gas trade.

Increasing international use is part of a broader strategy to maintain trade and financial relationships if U.S. financial sanctions cut it off from dollars. Trading partners are indeed using it, but not as much as Beijing would like or needs. Increasing the interest rate would certainly boost the e-CNY’s attractiveness internationally, but the current low interest rate isn’t much of an incentive to adopt it.

By focusing on a wholesale CBDC for international settlements, the CCP hopes to build a financial “Iron Curtain” that is immune to Western sanctions. This pivot is a tacit admission that the retail e-CNY has failed to become the “people’s money.”

Economic Decay and Internal Fractures

The failure and redesign of the e-CNY shouldn’t be viewed in a vacuum. The conditions and aspects of the digital yuan are still evolving because the original rollout didn’t succeed as much as the CCP had hoped. The digital yuan evolution is happening as the “China Miracle” enters its death throes.

There are too many negative economic factors to ignore. The property market, the main source of Chinese household wealth, continues to deteriorate. Youth unemployment remains at record highs, and the Belt and Road Initiative has turned into a massive debt-trap liability, with many partner nations unable to repay loans. Adopting a new currency that removes all privacy and personal autonomy in such economic conditions is poor timing, to say the least.

Political Division Within the CCP Is Another Factor

Political support within the CCP is shifting in intensity and among factions, and the Party is not the monolith it appears to be. Factional infighting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s “Security First” loyalists and the remnants of the technocratic wing has led to policy paralysis as other financial priorities demanded attention.

Resources that were once earmarked for the retail digital yuan are being diverted to shore up a failing banking system and to fund “theater” projects in the artificial intelligence sector meant to project a facade of technological parity with the West.

The Future: A Tool for Control, Not Commerce

Will the CCP cancel the e-CNY?

That’s not likely. Dictatorships rarely admit defeat. What’s more, it would be another mark against Xi’s authority that his opponents could use against him. In short, the digitalization of currency isn’t going away.

Instead, the digital yuan will likely be relegated to a specialized tool for state-to-state transactions, government disbursements, and auditing local officials. Plus, the digital yuan is ultimately about increasing control over the people and preserving the CCP’s rule over the country.

It’s here to stay, in one form or another.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 23:25

Raising A Child Now Costs About $303,000: Study

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Parents who start raising a child in 2026 will spend around $303,418 from birth to 18 years old, according to a study published April 6 by Lending Tree. The cost increased 1.9 percent from last year.

The average annual cost works out to about $16,857 over 18 years, pushing this year’s estimate over $300,000 for the first time since Lending Tree began calculating it in 2023, the online loan marketplace reported.

Hawaii is the most expensive state to raise a small child, as yearly costs reached $40,342 for the first five years, the report said. Raising a child for 18 years in Hawaii is projected to cost $412,661. The next most expensive state is Alaska at $365,047, followed by Maryland at $326,360.

Parents in the Aloha State are projected to spend more than 27 percent of their yearly income on raising a small child. Nebraska and Indiana follow closely with 23 percent. In all, parents in 22 states should expect to spend at least 20 percent of their yearly income on raising a small child, the report stated.

Maryland at $36,419 and Massachusetts at $34,247 were the second and third-most costly states per year for young children. California came in fourth highest with a yearly cost of $33,692. Insurance premiums in California were the highest of the four top states at an average of $5,254 per year.

The differences between some coastal states are substantial. Raising a child in California will now cost an average of $312,300, compared with Florida, where it costs $280,280, the study showed.

States with the lowest annual costs to raise a small child were Mississippi ($17,148), Alabama ($18,019), and South Dakota ($18,622).

Florida ranked 27th with a nearly $25,000 annual price tag to raise a small child, while Texas ranked 45th at just about $21,000.

Costs to raise a small child rose by about 10 percent or more in 14 states from 2025 to 2026. In four of those states, prices jumped by at least 20 percent, according to Lending Tree. Those included Nebraska, where costs increased 27.4 percent, and in Montana (24.5), Maine (24.4), and Wisconsin (23.3).

The largest overall cost increases were found in rental costs, which jumped by nearly 50 percent, and girls’ clothing, which jumped by nearly 27 percent.

President Donald Trump, joined by Republican lawmakers, signs the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law during an Independence Day military family picnic on the South Lawn of the White House on July 4, 2025. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Cost savings were found in a 10 percent increase in the child tax credit provided by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This resulted in $200 in savings each year.

The annual cost for the first five years of a child’s life decreased by about $94 from $29,419 to $29,325, or about 0.3 percent, because of a small dip in day care costs, according to the report.

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 21:45

California Supreme Court Orders "Rogue" Sheriff To Pause Election Fraud Probe

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times,

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco was ordered by the California Supreme Court on April 8 to halt his investigation into 2025 election fraud allegations so the judges can review the legal challenges that his probe faces.

Bianco, a Republican who is running for California governor, seized more than half a million 2025 election ballots after allegedly receiving complaints from locals.

Then, last month he seized an additional 1,000 boxes of election materials.

Local election officials told the county Board of Supervisors that his decision to take the ballots was unfounded.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, asked the court to step in and stop the investigation, saying that Bianco did not have authority to take the ballots.

Bianco seized another 426 boxes of ballots last week.

The top court ordered Bianco and his team to “pause the investigation into the November 2025 special election and preserve all seized items.”

“Today’s decision by the California Supreme Court reins in the destabilizing actions of a rogue Sheriff, prohibiting him from continuing this investigation while our litigation continues,” Bonta said in a statement.

The Epoch Times has contacted Bianco’s office for comment.

Bianco’s career in law enforcement extends 30 years.

In 2018 he was elected as the sheriff, coroner, and public administrator of Riverside County.

Bianco entered the crowded California gubernatorial race just over a year ago and edges behind fellow Republican, Steve Hilton, in the latest Berkeley IGS poll.

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who may be eying a presidential bid as he exits his current seat in January 2027, applauded today’s ruling by the court.

“Today’s decision is a victory for democracy and the rule of law,” Newsom wrote in an X post on Wednesday.

“This rogue sheriff chased conspiracy theories, tried to undermine our elections, and got the ruling he deserved. Trump and MAGA’s election denialism is a cancer, a danger to our democracy, and it must be stopped.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 18:25

Exxon Warns Of $6.5 Billion Hit From Iran War As Q1 Earnings Set To Print Slightly Below Consensus

In an early clue how the Iran war will impact energy earnings, ExxonMobil warned of a $6.5bn hit to Q1 earnings from the Iran war but said the bulk of this was the result of unfavorable timing for its accounting of hedging contracts, which would be offset as underlying transactions were eventually completed. The US supermajor also said that global oil and gas production would be 6% lower in the first three months of the year than in the fourth quarter of 2025 because of attacks on facilities in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in which it holds ownership stakes.

According to Exxon's 8K filed this morning, Goldman calculated that the company's adjusted EPS at the mid-point came in at ~$1.80 vs. consensus closer to $1.90 and Q4 levels closer to $1.71. As shown in the chart below, there was sequential improvement in Upstream driven by higher liquids prices, sequential declines in Downstream due to higher maintenance and relatively flat performance in Chemicals.

Volume disruptions at Exxon's production and refining businesses would deliver a $400mn to $800mn hit to earnings, while trading losses incurred because of a failure to deliver physical cargoes hedged with financial derivatives would cost another $600mn to $800mn, the company said in a statement.

Separately, the company provided a number of strategic updates, including: (1) the Permian likely producing at 1.8 mn boe/d in 2026, (2) first gas at Golden Pass having been achieved on March 30, and (3) that the Middle East production negatively impacted Q1 Upstream volumes by 6% compared to Q4 levels, with the overall Middle East portfolio representing 20% of Upstream production (albeit a lower level of segment earnings). As an aside, the quarterly comparison was challenging given disruptions in the Middle East, and large timing effects, the latter of which are excluded for the purposes of comparison.

Exxon has one of the largest exposures among western oil majors to the Middle East, according to the FT, which accounts for about 20% of its oil and gas production and 5% of its refining and chemical capacity.

The company’s assets in the region include stakes in LNG joint ventures with QatarEnergy that were damaged last month by Iranian attacks. Exxon said two gas liquefaction facilities in Qatar in which it has an ownership interest accounted for about 3% of its 2025 global oil and gas production.

“Public reports indicate the damage will take a prolonged period to repair. Pending an on-site evaluation, we are unable to comment,” the company said.

But the largest hit to Exxon’s first-quarter earnings, worth $3.5bn to $4.9bn, is linked to the surge in oil and gas prices caused by the Middle East conflict and the accounting treatment of financial derivatives it used to hedge prices while shipping products.

The company said the negative impact on its first-quarter earnings was a LIFO “timing effect” that would unwind over subsequent quarters and result in net positive profit once the underlying transactions covered by the hedges were completed.

“This quarter’s earnings include an unusually large, negative timing impact associated with our trading programme and the temporary earnings impacts that result from how we account for certain trades . . . These are sound trades and the profitability that will result from them will be material,” said Neil Hansen, Exxon’s CFO. 

“Because we are using derivatives, we are required to account for them at month-end prices and reflect the resulting impact in earnings at the end of each quarter. This accounting often happens well before the sale of the associated physical product is complete. As noted, this earnings mismatch always results in a timing difference that eventually unwinds itself in periods of rising price.”

Exxon said that excluding the unfavorable timing effects that would reverse over time, earnings in the quarter would be higher than in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Offsetting the timing effect loss was the surge in oil and gas prices following the start of the Middle East war on February 28 would deliver a $2.1bn to $2.9bn boost to first-quarter earnings.

Exxon shares fell 5% in pre-market trading on Wednesday to $154.70, as traders reacted to a two-week US-Iran ceasefire deal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 18:00

Justice Department Counters Russian Military Intelligence Unit Attack On US Targets

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Justice Department and FBI on Tuesday revealed they have conducted a court-approved technical operation to neutralize part of a network of small office and home office routers in the United States that become commandeered by a unit of Russia’s military intelligence.

The Department of Justice in Washington on March 11, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Russian Military Unit 26165—also known as APT28, Sofacy Group, Forest Blizzard, Pawn Storm, Fancy Bear, and Sednit—is part of Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff and has compromised routers to execute malicious Domain Name System (DNS) hijacking operations across the planet.

They targeted individual U.S. military members, the U.S. government, and critical infrastructure in which the Russian government expected to gain intelligence.

U.S. Attorney David Metcalf for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania said critical data had been commandeered.

“In the face of continued aggression by our nation-state adversaries, the U.S. government will respond just as aggressively,” Metcalf said. “Working with the FBI—and our partners around the world—we are committed to disrupting and exposing such threats to our nation’s cybersecurity.”

Assistant Director Brett Leatherman of FBI’s Cyber Division said U.S. and global routers had been compromised and that the FBI will continue to use its authorities to identify and impose costs on state-sponsored actors who target the American people.

“Given the scale of this threat, sounding the alarm wasn’t enough,” Leathernan said. “The FBI conducted a court-authorized operation to harden compromised routers across the United States.”

The FBI operation, called Operation Masquerade, is the most recent U.S. action to undermine continuous Russian state-sponsored cyber threats that exploit everyday consumer devices.

Since 2024, GRU actors have attacked known vulnerabilities in TP-Link routers worldwide to steal administrative credentials. They then obtained unauthorized access to devices and changed their settings to redirect DNS queries to GRU-controlled malicious resolvers.

The actors set up automated filters to identify high-value traffic before intercepting it. The malicious resolvers returned fraudulent DNS records that appeared to be legitimate services, including Microsoft Outlook Web Access.

This allowed man-in-the-middle attacks on what victims thought was encrypted network traffic. The GRU was able to harvest unencrypted passwords, authentication tokens, emails, and other sensitive data from devices on the compromised router’s local network.

The operation included technical contributions from Black Lotus Labs at Lumen, Microsoft Threat Intelligence, and MIT Lincoln Laboratory.

“Operation Masquerade was led by FBI Boston. It represents the latest example of how we’re defending our homeland from Russia’s GRU which weaponized routers owned by unsuspecting Americans in more than 23 states to steal sensitive government, military, and critical infrastructure information,” special agent in charge of the FBI’s Boston Field Office Ted E. Docks said.

He noted that the FBI employed cutting edge technology and leveraged private sector and international partners to combat the malicious activity and remediate routers.

Court documents from the case, filed in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, outline how the FBI developed and tested commands sent only to affected routers in the United States.

The commands revealed evidence of GRU schemes, reset the devices’ DNS settings to legitimate resolvers of internet service providers, and shut down the original unauthorized access points. TP-Link router firmware and hardware settings confirmed the operation would not interrupt normal router function or collect users’ personal data.

Legitimate owners can change the settings through a factory reset with the hardware button or by manually restoring settings through the router’s web interface.

The FBI has also been working with internet service providers to inform affected users.

Owners of small office and home office routers are advised to replace end-of-life or end-of-support devices, upgrade to the newest firmware, verify that DNS resolvers are the same as those provided by the internet service provider, and review firewall rules to prevent unnecessary remote management access.

The GRU’s Unit 26165 was the subject of May 2025 joint advisory from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, as well as international partners, describing how the unit attacked Western logistics and technology companies delivering aid to Ukraine. The campaign, dating back to 2022, impacted organizations in 13 nations, including the United States, Germany, and France.

In April 2025, French officials said a series of hacks since 2021 were the work of the same GRU unit.

“The Russian military intelligence service (GRU) has been deploying a cyber-offensive modus operandi called APT28 against France for several years. It has targeted around 10 French entities since 2021,” Jean-Noël Barrot, the French foreign minister, wrote on social media platform X.

In a February 2024 disruption, the Justice Department took apart a GRU-controlled botnet that had attacked hundreds of small or home office routers around the world with malware. The FBI used the same malware to copy and delete stolen data while changing firewall rules to ban remote management access.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 17:40

Sen. Graham Urges Congressional Iran Vote...On Approving Peace, Not War

This is definitely in you really can't make this up(!) territory... Sen. Lindsey Graham is actually calling for a Congressional vote, but not concerning a War Powers Resolution. 

Instead, he has called for Congress to review and vote on any diplomatic agreement ending the war with what he described as the "Iranian terrorist regime." That's right, the NeoCon senator from South Carolina only wants a Congressional vote on whether peace should be approved. He has remained opposed to a War Powers vote.

In a series of posts on X, Graham stated that he supports a diplomatic outcome but insists any deal with Iran must undergo congressional scrutiny to ensure it aligns with his own Israel's US national security interests.

"Like everyone, I hope we can end the reign of terror of the Iranian regime through diplomacy," he wrote Tuesday night, and said that any agreement needs Congress "for a vote, like we did with the [former President Barack] Obama JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action]."

The Trump admin and Iran just entered a two-week ceasefire aimed at negotiating a broader settlement following over a month of brutal conflict which has chiefly focused on an air war.

Both sides are readying for direct, face-to-face talks in Islamabad. Trump has previewed that Kushner, Witkoff, and maybe even Vice President J.D. Vance will be there. Trump has said these will happen "very soon". He told the NY Post on Wednesday:

"We'll have Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, JD — maybe JD, I don't know," Mr. Trump told the New York Post over the phone. "There's a question of safety, security."

As for Graham, he has warned against premature conclusions about a deal and called for transparency. "At this early stage, I am extremely cautious regarding what is fact vs. fiction or misrepresentation,” He called for a "a healthy dose of sunlight" to be brought to the deal.

He's also calling for all of Iran's enriched uranium to come under American control. 

Again a diplomatic solution to end the reign of terror in Iran is the preferred outcome. The supposed negotiating document, in my view, has some troubling aspects, but time will tell. I look forward to the architects of this proposal, the Vice President and others, coming forward…

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) April 8, 2026

"As President Trump said this morning, all the highly enriched uranium must be removed from Iran and handed over to the United States – the Libyan Model," Graham wrote, adding that allowing continued enrichment "would be inconsistent with denying Iran a pathway toward a bomb."

However, there's an obvious irony to invoking the Libyan Model. After Gaddafi gave up his WMD aspirations during the Bush administration years, he was later by 2011 regime changed by the US and NATO, and bayonetted in the streets by Islamist 'rebels'.

* * *

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 17:20

The New Financial Iron Curtain: Taxes, Capital Controls, & The War On Your Wealth

Authored by Chris Macintosh via InternationalMan.com,

There is a term called “gating” in the fund management world.

It refers to blocking investors from redeeming their funds. Funds do this sometimes as a precaution… and other times when they are in the poo.

Well, governments are the same. When they are in the poo, they also resort to their version of gating. It’s just called taxes.

I’ve always loved the Dutchies. Growing up in South Africa with the Afrikaners — descendants of the Dutch — I can tell you that as a group they are fantastic: hard working, ethical, and very down to earth.

It is with sadness, therefore, that I have to acknowledge that their government is thoroughly cocked-up, and they themselves are already behind a financial iron curtain.

They recently approved a 36% unrealised capital gains tax.

It has since been put back for consideration, but this is not the point. The point is that when governments get into the proverbial isht, this is precisely what happens. You’ll know this because we’ve been talking about it for donkey’s years in these missives.

Along with California and many blue states, the Canadians and Aussies are also toying with the idea. It’s been trial-ballooned (usually how they go about these things) in all of the above-mentioned places, but the Dutchies just approved it.

Some of you may recall how we don’t like ETFs which use futures contracts. The reason is that you are mathematically 100% going to lose money if you hold them over time. Why? Because volatility will erode you. Every time you roll the futures contracts you get shredded if there’s been any volatility. And inevitably there will be volatility.

In any event, what’s going to happen with the Dutchies is kinda similar. Let me explain with some basic maths.

Let’s get on our bicycles for a minute and pretend we’re Dutch, and we invest $1,000 into a stock.

Year 1: Because we’re geniuses, our stock goes to $2,000. Excellent! We made $1,000. Except we now owe $360 in capital gains tax. But we didn’t sell anything. We don’t have the $360. So we’re forced to sell shares to pay tax. But everyone else who has made any gain is also forced to sell too. Mass panic selling. Stock crashes to $800. We have $440 left after paying tax.

Year 2: Stock recovers to $1,200. Government: “You made $400, pay $144.” Forced selling again. Price drops to $900. Now we have $756 left.

Year 3: Stock is back down to $1,000. Government: “You made $100, pay us $36.” Actually, anyone still dumb enough to be hanging around Holland at this point is literally retarded. All the smart money has fled. Anyway, we have $964 in stock.

In total we paid $540 in taxes. Our stock is back where it started (0% gain). We only have $460 left. Congratulations. We just lost 54% on a stock that broke even.

On the other hand, the government made more money off this investment than we did — $540 — and they had a “no money down” deal.

Sticking with the topic of this theft tax, serial entrepreneur Balaji Srinivasan posted the following, which I thought was interesting as I’d not considered it.

“Wealth taxes are even worse than you think. Any asset held by Californian billionaires or Dutch citizens is now at risk of experiencing forced liquidation pressure…

… Because the long run fruits of Western Keynesianism are the same as Soviet Communism, in the sense of wealth seizure and pauperization.

I mean, if you knew the future, you wouldn’t want to co-own a farm with a Russian in 1916. For similar reasons, you might not want to co-own a share of stock with Dutch national in 2026. Or with anyone in a seizure-curious jurisdiction…which unfortunately includes much of Western Europe, Canada, and Blue America.”

I have been warning for years now that the EU would impose capital controls. Please understand: they are already here.

All of the EU is a mess and difficult, but the Dutch and Germans are actually in the worst position.

Now I’m not here to lament and whinge. Complaining is both useless and unproductive. I’m here to explain that we are only just getting started. If you think this stops here — or that more doesn’t come — you are betting against hundreds of years of history.

Capitalist Exploits Insider isn’t particularly meant to be about these issues. After all, we’re fund managers buying listed equities, and I’m not here to tell you how to go about obtaining secondary residencies or anything else. These are simply intelligent steps to take and you need to go educate yourself on those aspects. Now. Because if you don’t, then reading this article after all your wealth has already been stolen is not going to serve you well.

You know what is most frustrating of all? The apathy of the citizenry. The Dutch government just declared open war on them and the response? Nothing. I don’t anticipate anything different in all the other countries mentioned which are preparing for this or something very similar. Very disappointing.

*  *  *

The warning is clear: once governments move in this direction, they rarely stop at one measure. That is why we created a free PDF special report, Clash of the Systems: Thoughts on Investing at a Unique Point in Time. Inside, you’ll see the major economic, political, and cultural trends taking shape right now, what they could mean for your wealth and freedom, and how thoughtful investors can prepare before the next round of controls arrives. Click here to get your free copy now.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 17:00

No Real People Were Polled: AI Is Now Fabricating What "The Public Thinks"

The other day Axios ran a piece that cited "findings" that a majority of people trusted their doctors and nurses. Turns out, those "findings" were completely fabricated by a company called Aaru - using AI (causing Axios to issue an editor's note and 'clarification')Aaru uses something they call "silicon sampling," where large language models (the AI) can emulate humans at a fraction of the cost and time required for traditional polling, the NY Times reports.

Silicon sampling isn’t polling. It is the outright fabrication of public opinion by machines - and major news outlets and research firms are now publishing those fabrications as legitimate findings. 

This is not an isolated slip. The technology is being embraced by some of the biggest names in media, polling, and corporate research. Gallup has partnered with the startup Simile to create thousands of AI-generated “digital twins” that stand in for real people. Ipsos is working with Stanford to pioneer synthetic data for public opinion studies. CVS, whose venture arm invested in Simile, is already using these fabricated insights to shape customer strategy. And outlets like Axios are treating the output as news.

The entire point of polling has always been authenticity - capturing what actual humans actually think (after oversampling your preferred party to make it look like as if people like Hillary Clinton).

That process is imperfect and messy. Let’s say a pollster wants to learn how many people in the United States are in favor of a certain policy measure, but the pollster ends up with a survey that includes 80 percent Republicans and only 20 percent Democrats. The pollster may think that in reality the country is closer to a 50-50 split, so the results are rebalanced to reflect that perceived reality. This means that the percentages you read as the results of polling are the output of the model, not numbers from the actual survey data.

The problem is that every model is designed with its own biases, because pollsters disagree about which variables deserve more weight. In 2016, The New York Times’s chief political analyst, Nate Cohn, ran an experiment in which he gave five pollsters the same election poll data. (That included Siena College, which conducts opinion polls for The Times and first acquired the data.)

Mr. Cohn found a 5 percent range of difference among what the five pollsters’ models returned. That range was larger than the margin of error typically associated with random sampling, meaning that the modeling assumptions were meaningfully skewing the results. This is alarming, because it suggests that pollsters can use modeling to nudge polls in a certain direction and influence public opinion itself, rather than merely to report what the public thinks.

Walter Lippmann warned a century ago that democracy depends on an accurate picture of the public will. Traditional polling, however imperfect, at least began with real responses from real citizens. It was expensive, slow, and messy precisely because humans are expensive, slow, and messy. Silicon sampling removes every trace of that mess - and with it, every trace of reality. The models are trained on past data, tuned by the biases of their creators, and prompted to spit out whatever “representative” opinions the client wants to see. The result is not public opinion. It is a mirror of the assumptions fed into the machine.

Fake Polling Also Picked Kamala Harris... 

On the eve of the 2024 election, Aaru ran a full-scale simulation that confidently projected a narrow victory for Kamala Harris. Market researchers now use these synthetic polls to decide product launches and ad campaigns. Policy shops quietly substitute AI-generated “constituent sentiment” for actual feedback. Each time a respected outlet or pollster presents these inventions as fact, they normalize the idea that fabricated data is good enough.

The consequences are already here. When headlines say “a new poll shows,” readers have no way of knowing whether real people were ever asked. Trust in institutions is eroding fast enough without handing decision-makers and journalists an unlimited supply of plausible-sounding fake data. Social science, political strategy, and market research risk becoming elaborate games of digital pretend.

So there's that...

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 16:40

Why China Might Have Pressed Iran To Compromise With The US

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The sequence that Trump threatened if no deal was reached before the expiry of his deadline would have cut China off from half of the oil that it imported by sea last year and likely set Afro-Eurasia aflame in resource wars for the indefinite future that would have derailed China’s superpower rise.

Three unnamed Iranian officials reportedly told the New York Times (NYT) that China pressed their country to compromise with the US by agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and resuming talks.

When asked about whether China played such a role, Trump responded that, “I hear yes. Yes they were.”

This was followed by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning revealing that “China made its own efforts in this regard.”

Although she didn’t directly confirm the report, she didn’t outright deny it either.

Interestingly, Drop Site founder Ryan Grim noticed that the edit history of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s tweet imploring Trump to extend his deadline for destroying Iran’s civilization if a deal isn’t reached saw him originally post “*Draft - Pakistan’s PM Message on X*”. Grim wrote that “Sharif’s own staff don’t call him ‘Pakistan’s PM,’ they would just call him prime minister. The U.S. and Israel, of course, would call him ‘Pakistan’s PM.’” Trump cited his talks with Sharif when extending his deadline.

In light of the NYT’s report, Trump’s positive affirmation thereof, and Mao’s related innuendo, an alternative hypothesis is that it wasn’t the US or Israel that drafted Sharif’s tweet, but China. Regardless of whoever did, it’s reasonable that China might have indeed pressed Iran to compromise with the US, not least because it would have tremendously suffered had Trump carried through on his threat. As a reminder, he threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants, bridges, and possibly even oil infrastructure too.

In response, Iran threatened to destroy the Gulf’s, and the sequence that Trump could have catalyzed would have resulted in the region’s energy exports going offline indefinitely. China would have then suddenly lost the 48.4% of oil that it imported by sea last year, 13.4% of which came from Iran and 35% from the Gulf Kingdoms (excluding Oman whose exports are from the Arabian Sea). Although it has strategic reserves and is producing more alternative energy, that would still its economy very, very hard.

China’s superpower rise would end, while resources wars would break out all across Afro-Eurasia except in resource-rich Russia, thus destabilizing the Eastern Hemisphere for years to come as the US relatively insulates itself in “Fortress America” and divides-and-rules the other side of the world. Naturally, China would prefer to avert that dark scenario even if the lesser evil results in the end of Iran’s petroyuan experiment and perhaps also its oil exports to China. Continued Gulf exports are much more important.

It’s unrealistic to imagine that China promised to intervene in Iran’s support if the US dupes it with talks for a third time in less than a year when it won’t risk World War III over Taiwan nor in furtherance of its “no-limits” Russian strategic partner’s goals in Ukraine.

Observers can therefore only speculate what China credibly offered Iran in exchange for compromising with the US by agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and resuming talks, but at the least, generous reconstruction support was probably included.

To recap, China’s interest in pressing Iran to cut a deal with the US would have stemmed from fears of the sequence that Trump threatened setting Afro-Eurasia aflame for the indefinite future, though there has yet to be any unambiguous confirmation from its side that it played such role and might never be.

Nevertheless, it’s clear that something happened close to the expiry of Trump’s deadline for the IRGC to agree to a ceasefire with the US instead of embrace martyrdom, and it’s likely connected to China.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 16:20

Stablecoin Yields Won't Harm Banks, White House Economists Say

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

A White House report found that banning yield on stablecoins would have a marginal impact on bank lending while creating clear economic downsides.

According to the Council of Economic Advisers, a three-member agency within the Executive Office of the President tasked to offer the president economic advice, moving funds from stablecoins back into bank deposits would not translate into significant new lending. Under its baseline scenario, total bank lending would increase by about $2.1 billion, roughly 0.02% of the $12 trillion loan market.

The report, published Wednesday, says that community banks would see even smaller gains. Lending at these institutions would increase by roughly $500 million, or about 0.026%.

The findings come amid an ongoing clash between banks and the crypto industry over stablecoin yields. Banking organizations, including the Independent Community Bankers of America, have warned that stablecoin yields could significantly reduce bank lending, while crypto groups have rejected the claim.

Stablecoin lending ban could cost $800 million per year

However, banning stablecoin rewards could carry a greater cost. The report estimates a net welfare loss of around $800 million per year, mainly because users would lose access to yield on stablecoins. The cost-benefit ratio is about 6.6, meaning the economic costs would far exceed any gains in lending.

“Producing lending effects in the hundreds of billions requires simultaneously assuming the stablecoin share sextuples, all reserves shift into segregated deposits, and the Federal Reserve abandons its ample-reserves framework,” the report concludes.

Portfolio effects of the yield ban. Source: White House

In July 2025, President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law. The law prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest or yield to holders, but third-party platforms (like exchanges) can still offer yield on stablecoins. The proposed Digital Asset Market Clarity Act could close that gap by clarifying whether yield should be restricted across the board or allowed under certain conditions.

CLARITY Act nearing Senate markup hearing

The US House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act on July 17, 2025. In January, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott delayed a planned markup, which has yet to be rescheduled.

Last week, Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal said the CLARITY Act could be nearing a markup hearing in the US Senate Banking Committee, with lawmakers close to agreement on key provisions. He noted that progress hinges on resolving disagreements over stablecoin yield.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 15:45

Mexico Truckers Block Key Freight Routes In Nationwide Strike

By Noi Mahoney of FreightWaves,

A nationwide strike by Mexican truckers and farmers blocked major highways and freight corridors across Mexico on Monday, disrupting access to Mexico City, industrial zones and several U.S.-Mexico border crossings.

The protest, organized by the National Association of Transporters (ANTAC) and the National Front for the Rescue of the Mexican Countryside (FNRCM), included road blockades in at least 20 states and began around 7 a.m. CST, with disruptions expected to last several hours or longer in some areas.

The groups say the strike is in response to rising cargo crime, high diesel and operating costs, deteriorating road infrastructure and a lack of progress on agreements with the federal government related to highway security and extortion.

Major freight corridors affected

According to Mexican media reports, blockades were reported on several of Mexico’s most important freight routes, including:

• Mexico–Querétaro
• Mexico–Puebla
• Mexico–Pachuca
• Mexico–Cuernavaca
• Federal Highway 45 in the Bajío region
• Culiacán–Mazatlán corridor
• Guadalajara–Colima and Mexico–Guadalajara routes
• Access roads to Mexico City
• Border crossings in Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana and Mexicali

These corridors connect Mexico’s manufacturing hubs, ports and border crossings, making them critical for domestic distribution and cross-border trade.

The strike is affecting access to industrial corridors, customs facilities and toll roads, similar to protests in November 2025 that disrupted more than 40 highways and access to industrial zones and customs facilities.

Security and costs drive protests

Transport and agricultural groups say insecurity remains one of the biggest issues facing freight operators in Mexico.

Official government data shows 6,263 investigations into cargo truck robberies were opened in 2025, but industry groups estimate the true number of cargo theft incidents — including unreported cases — exceeded 16,000, with losses topping 7 billion pesos annually.

Protesters are demanding:

• Increased National Guard presence on highways
• Action against extortion and corruption at checkpoints
• Lower operating costs, including diesel
• Support programs and policy changes for agricultural producers

Farmers joining the strike say insecurity, high fuel costs and agricultural pricing pressures are hurting rural producers and transport operators alike.

Government pushes back

Mexico’s Interior Ministry said the government has held multiple meetings with transport and agricultural groups and has provided billions of pesos in support to farmers, arguing there is “no reason” for the protests and warning that blockades affect third parties and the broader economy, according to Omnia.

Still, organizers say the strike could continue if no agreements are reached, raising the risk of ongoing disruptions to supply chains and freight movement across Mexico.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 15:05

Kevin Plank's Unsellable Thoroughbred Race Farm Sees Another Deep Price Cut

Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank has once again cut the asking price on his massive thoroughbred racing farm in northern Baltimore County, Maryland, as the historic farm - once owned by the Vanderbilt family - continues to sit on the market amid a series of deep price cuts.

Plank has been winding down his sprawling real estate portfolio, offloading everything from multiple residential properties to a luxury hotel in Baltimore City in recent years. Among his crown jewels - alongside the Baltimore Peninsula - is Sagamore Farm, a 404-acre thoroughbred racing operation he has been trying to sell for years.

The latest data from multiple listing service provider MLS Bright shows that Plank likely instructed his listing agent, Christina Giffin of Monument Sotheby's International Realty, to pursue another price cut.

MLS Bright data shows Sagamore's current listing price is around $16.5 million. This represents a 15% cut from the late-2025 listing of $18.5 million and an overall decline of about 25% from the original $22 million listing in March 2025. The farm appears to have been on and off the market.

We've outlined the mounting challenges for Plank as UA's brand momentum trended downward for years, but only in recent quarters have we begun focusing on UBS analyst Jay Sole, who is attempting to call a bottom in the stock. Also, the "Warren Buffett of Canada" piled into the stock earlier this year as management raised its outlook.

Plank is still dealing with the "ghost town" of Baltimore Peninsula amid the city's declining population, which has fallen to a 100-year low under the far-left leadership of Mayor Brandon Scott. Statewide, Maryland's financial profile is deteriorating under left-wing Governor Wes Moore, with high taxes, crime, a growing fiscal deficit, rising power bills, prioritizing all things woke, significant outbound migration, and other mounting challenges. This is what you get under one-party Democratic rule of kings and queens that have ignited a fire in the state and city under backfiring DEI policies.

Plank should focus on advocating for political change in Baltimore City. At least one other billionaire is already involved in such efforts. If Plank wants his "city within a city" to thrive, negative net migration trends must reverse, and both the city and the state will need to improve their overall financial profiles. Certaintly Democrats show zero interest in fostering a thriving state. 

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 14:45

FOMC Minutes Signal Fed Saw "Dual Sided" Risks From Iran War

Since the last FOMC meeting (March 18th), a lot has happened (war, more war, and now less war), and rate-change expectations hawkishly surged, then dovishly normalized today...

And given the last 24 hours, perhaps this information is more useful now, as we return to macro-fundamentals from geopolitical chaos running markets.

The minutes, released three weeks after the meeting, underscore the Fed's dilemma as it seeks to fill its congressional mandates of low inflation and maximum employment.

Fed officials wrestled with starkly differing scenarios for the US economy following the outbreak of the Iran war, including one that called for interest-rate cuts and another that would require raising rates.

On one side, Fed officials acknowledged that the Iran conflict could also force households to cut back spending to offset higher gas prices, which would slow growth and raise unemployment.

"...most participants raised the concern that a protracted conflict in the Middle East could lead to a further softening in labor market conditions, which could warrant additional rate cuts," according to the minutes of the meeting.

But on the other side:

"...many participants pointed to the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected amid a persistent increase in oil prices, which could call for rate increases."

And at the same time, many policymakers highlighted the risk to inflation that might ultimately warrant rate increases.

"Partly as a result of these factors, the vast majority of participants noted that progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective could be slower than previously expected," according to the minutes.

The record of the meeting also showed that a growing number of officials urged their colleagues to consider language in the committee’s statement raising the scenario of hiking interest rates under certain conditions.

“Some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the committee’s future interest-rate decisions in the post-meeting statement, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation were to remain at above-target levels,” the minutes said.

As a reminder, The Fed kept its key rate unchanged at about 3.6% with Powell saying that another reduction depended on underlying inflation cooling steadily this year:

"If we don’t see that progress then you won’t see the rate cut,” he said then.

Will the ceasefire slow inflation or is the damage already done and yet to flow through global supply chains?

Read the full Minutes below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 14:10

Trader Makes $23 Million In One Day With Massive S&P Call Purchase Hours Before Ceasefire

A trader who made a large bet on a stocks rocketing in the coming weeks is up about $23 million in paper profit today, according to Bloomberg.

The unknown trader spent $12 million premium on 6800 lots of 6950 S&P 500 Index Options (SPX) calls for May 8 expiry, when the index was at 6556.21; the trade was executed around 10:20 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, just hours before Trump's announcement of a 2-week ceasefire which sent stocks soaring. 

The trade was an “example of upside chasing on hopes of an imminent peace deal”, said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives intelligence, in an email Tuesday. 

Following the ceasefire deal last night, stocks surged, with the long SPX 6950 position now trading at $50, Bloomberg pricing data indicates.

That makes the position worth $35 million as of noon on April 8, with the S&P 500 at 6773, or a $23 million profit net of the premium paid. 

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 14:00

The Apple AI Strategy: Discipline Over Hype

Authored by Michael Lebowtiz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash. Given the massive growth in AI investments, as shown in the graphs below, executives of leading companies at the forefront of AI development must be ecstatic about the prospect of AI significantly boosting their bottom lines.

The puzzling question, however, is why Apple isn’t following suit. Or could they be taking a different approach to winning the AI arms race?

Apple Avoids The AI Spending Boom

Apple is one of the world’s most profitable companies. Over the last four quarters, they reported over $400 billion in annual revenue and nearly $100 billion of free cash flow. Furthermore, the company holds $65 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $77 billion in marketable securities.  The bottom line is that Apple can easily self-fund AI innovation on a massive scale, as its competitors are doing. Yet it hasn’t.

Rather than mimicking its peers, Apple appears content to let the AI landscape mature before committing significant capital. Restraint may seem like complacency or even negligence. However, Apple has a long and extremely successful history of deploying capital at the right time; when the profit outlook is clear, the technology is established, and the customer value proposition is well-defined.

This approach may be frustrating for Apple shareholders in the short term, but history and the chart below, comparing Apple to the S&P 500, suggest it has served them extremely well.

Apple’s Historical Playbook

Apple has rarely been first to introduce a new product. It was not the first personal computer company, the first smartphone maker, or the first to launch wireless earbuds, smartwatches, or VR headsets. In nearly every case, Apple waited while other companies experimented and helped define the product and the market.

Apple waited to understand what consumers wanted in a product.  Only after the uses of a new product became obvious and consumer demand was proven did Apple step in with well-designed products that emphasized reliability, usability, and profitability. Their goal has always been not to be the biggest producer of a product but to be the best. In most cases, they have lived up to that lofty goal.

The timeline below shows the various smartphones that preceded Apple’s iPhone. Given the smartphone landscape today and the fate of the products that preceded the iPhone, it’s fair to say that Apple’s patience was well rewarded.

Discipline May Win The AI Game

Today’s generative AI ecosystem is still in its experimental phase. Training costs are enormous, inference costs remain high, and business models are largely unproven. Many AI products may be impressive, but have produced limited revenue.

Instead of competing with the likes of Microsoft, Meta, and Google, Apple appears to be integrating AI incrementally. They are embedding AI into existing hardware, operating systems, and services rather than creating standalone, capital-intensive platforms. This allows its products to stay competitive without fundamentally altering its cost structure.

This approach takes Apple out of the AI limelight, which has at times weighed on the stock price.

 

Waiting For Clarity

There are good reasons to wait for AI to better define itself before Apple spends hundreds of billions on strategies that may not prove profitable. For example:

• Monetization: While AI can clearly improve productivity and user engagement, it remains unclear how much consumers are willing to pay for it directly.

• Legal/regulatory: Data privacy, intellectual property disputes, model accountability, and regulatory limitations are evolving areas of law and public policy. Apple, whose brand is closely tied to trust and privacy, could lose more than most companies from missteps in these areas.

• Capital flexibility: By not locking itself into massive investments today, Apple retains the capital flexibility to invest rapidly once AI technology better defines itself and the economics become more apparent.

The Long View

For the impatient investor or trader, Apple’s approach probably feels underwhelming, especially amongst the daily headlines proclaiming AI innovation and trillion-dollar opportunities. But, for investors with patience, history suggests that Apple’s greatest successes have come not from being first, but from entering markets when technology, consumer readiness, and profitability align.

In our article, AI Bubble: History Says Caution Is Warranted, we discussed how many game-changing innovations, such as AI, are often accompanied by a financial bubble. Furthermore, for understanding Apple’s AI strategy, it has historically been far from certain that the front-runners, initially touted as the biggest beneficiaries of the innovation, will be the long-term winners.  To wit:

In 1999, few, if any, investors had ever heard of Google. The term for an internet search, “Googling,” was not yet a thing. Today, Google has a 90+% share of the search engine volume, and many of its early competitors no longer exist. 

Might Apple be taking a page out of Google’s playbook and waiting in the weeds for the AI industry to mature?

Might Apple be the next Google?

Summary

In the early stages of a technology buildout, infrastructure tends to capture the most value. This time appears similar, with the chipmaker Nvidia posting extraordinary returns and investors fawning over the big data center players like Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google. However, over time, value typically migrates toward the technology’s application. Understanding where we are in that migration from infrastructure to application is important.

In our opening section, we asked if Apple executives share the same enthusiasm for AI as their chief competitors. The answer may be that Apple executives understand something their peers do not; the race rarely goes to whoever is first out of the gate.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 13:40

Blue Owl Stock Slides After Moody's Cuts Outlook To "Negative" On Surging Redemption Requests

Blue Owl stocks is getting slammed this morning, erasing all early gains, after Moody's Ratings cut its outlook on a $36-billion Blue Owl non-traded fund to "negative" from "stable" on Tuesday, citing redemption requests that were significantly higher than at peers in the first quarter. Moody's also said the change in the outlook on Blue Owl Credit Income Corp (OCIC) is ​due to the majority of the redemption requests coming from a very limited number of investors, revealing some concentration in ​the equity-holder base.

The downgrade highlights ​the mounting strains in the $2 trillion private credit industry after a strong run, as jittery retail investors bail out amid ‌rising concerns around transparency, lending standards and valuations.

As we noted recently, having started the firesale in the private credit in February, the decision has since backfired on Blue Owl, leading to an unprecedented surge in redemptions, which hit a record 40.7% for the Blue Owl Technology Income Corp, and 22% for the Blue Owl Credit Income Corp. 

In response, OCIC, Blue Owl's biggest business development company (BDC), had said about 90% of the investors did ⁠not request to redeem in the first quarter, which, however, is precisely one of the main concerns for Moody's which cautioned about concentration risk. OCIC investors sought to redeem 21.9% of shares in the first quarter, significantly higher ​than the 5.2% redemption requests received in the fourth quarter.

Moody's said it expects elevated redemptions to persist in the coming quarters and inflows ​could slow further, resulting in the dissipation of OCIC's currently strong capital and liquidity positions.

Blue Owl has previously said there was a "meaningful disconnect" between public sentiment on private credit funds and the underlying performance of its portfolio, although as we explained previously, the company may be simply delaying the inevitable asset remarking as a mere 20% drop in underlying asset values would breach key regulatory ratios. 

Earlier on Tuesday, Moody's had revised its outlook on US all  BDCs to "negative" from "stable", citing rising redemption pressures, ​higher leverage and weakening access to funding markets.

Non-traded perpetual BDCs, like OCIC, have grown rapidly in the past few years as alternative ​asset managers aggressively expanded in the wealth channel and focused on retail and high-net-worth investors, who are increasingly buying private assets.

But retail investors tend to be ‌less ⁠patient and predictable compared to institutional investors during periods of volatility.

Such investment vehicles offer lower volatility compared to publicly traded BDCs, but investors have to contend with lower liquidity.

As we have repeatedly discussed, Blue Owl has become the poster child for private credit funds that are struggling with an elevated level of redemptions. Its stock has more than halved over the past 12 months and is trading near record low, and on Wednesday it reversed all early gains and was trading down 1%, if still above its record lows hit last week.

Its handling of some ​of its private credit funds in ​recent months also attracted intense ⁠scrutiny and raised concerns about liquidity for such vehicles.

Blue Owl had last year planned to merge its publicly traded fund Blue Owl Capital Corp with a non-public fund called Blue Owl Capital Corp II, ​but called off the deal after a plan to freeze withdrawals ahead of the transaction rattled investors. 

The ​firm earlier this ⁠year replaced quarterly redemptions at OBDC II with promised payouts. It also sold $1.4 billion in assets from three of its credit funds to a consortium of investors which included an affiliated insurer, to return capital to investors and pay down debt. Concerns promptly emerged that the less than "arms length" transaction had cherry picked the best assets, leaving investors stuck with underperforming software exposure. 

OBDC II is a finite-life non-traded BDC and the fund was due to give a full liquidity event ⁠to investors ​within three-to-four years of the completion of its public offering, which runs through 2026.

Last ​month, S&P Global revised the outlook on Cliffwater's $33 billion flagship private credit fund to "negative" over higher investor redemption requests.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 13:25

10Y Auction Tails As Foreign Demand Dips

After yesterday's impressive 3Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $39 billion in benchmark, 10Y paper, in what was a mediocre auction.

The auction, a 9-Year 10-Month reopening of cusip CPX8, stopped at a high yield of 4.282%, up from 4.217% last month and the highest since last August. It also tailed the When Issued 4.280% by 0.2bps, the third consecutive tail in a row.

The bid to cover dipped to 2.429 from 2.449, and was also below the six-auction average of 2.48.

The internals also disappointed, as foreign demand slumped from March with Indirects awarded 65.32%, down from 74.45%, and below the recent average of 68.78%. Directs offset much of this drop, rising to 23.88%, almost double the 12.83% in March and the highest since January. Dealers were left holding 10.8%, down from 12.7% the previous month, but in line with the average of 10.05%.

Overall this was a slightly subpar auction, especially after yesterday's stellar 3Y auction, but in light of the bid drop in yields across the curve and the lack of concession, it priced roughly where it should have and the market has barely reacted as one would expect.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 13:16

White House Addresses Fragile Iran Truce

All eyes are on the very shaky Iran ceasefire, at a moment Tehran is already threatening to pull out due to heavy Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Iran says it has again halted Hormuz oil transit, and there's much that's still up in the air and uncertain. The briefing with press secretary Karoline Leavitt is expected to begin at 1300ET:

Washington and Tehran have just entered a two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistani mediation, aimed at negotiating a broader settlement following over a month of brutal conflict which has chiefly focused on an air war. Will it stick?

Both sides are readying for direct, face-to-face talks in Islamabad. Trump has previewed that Kushner, Witkoff, and maybe even Vice President J.D. Vance will be there. Trump has said these will happen "very soon". He told the NY Post on Wednesday:

"We'll have Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, JD — maybe JD, I don't know," Mr. Trump told the New York Post over the phone. "There's a question of safety, security."

One question is whether the two sides see eye to eye on the initial 'agreed upon' ten points. Even the basis for the current ceasefire has come under scrutiny and possible disagreement.

Earlier Wednesday morning, the NY Times stated:

A White House official says that the 10-point peace plan that Iran publicly released on Wednesday differs from the plan that Trump said was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.” The official declined to elaborate on the differences but said Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, was expected to clarify at a 1 p.m. briefing.

Leavitt is expected to address this pressing issue during the briefing, which promises to be a lively exchange with reporters.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 13:00